臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

夏季季內振盪的移動與發展和夏季季風的肇始與中斷息息相關，同時也對颱風的生成及路徑有很大影響。因此，能否掌握季內振盪的模擬將直接的影響模式預報準確度。本研究目的在於探討耦合模式與解析度對模式模擬夏季季內振盪能力的影響。選用CMIP-5兼具大氣模式AGCM與海氣耦合模式CGCM的模擬做比較，藉此分析AGCM與CGCM對夏季季內振盪(ISO)的模擬能力以及差異。選用的7個模式及觀測資料時間皆為1985~2005年，唯GPCP觀測降水時間較短1997~2008。本研究使用Daubechies(1998)小波分析方法來濾波，並使用空間相關係數以及均方根誤差來評估模式模擬的優劣。
本研究發現，CMIP-5中、高解析度模式在ISO模擬已較過去CMIP-3資料進步，能模擬出較強的ISO訊號以及較佳的空間位置。低解析度的模式則仍然低估ISO訊號。系集平均結果則優於單一模式，能有最佳的表現。
在東、西風相位及EOF-1的模擬中，大多數模式都有不錯的表現，特別是風場模擬優於降水及渦度，系集平均同樣有最佳的模擬結果。所有模式皆能模擬出渦度場位於降水場西北方的空間結構，有利於對流向西北方發展，提供模式訊號北移的基本條件。
中、高解析度CGCM能改善AGCM訊號高估以及西北太平洋過於向東延伸的問題。反之，低解析度模式則低估訊號且空間模擬不佳。AGCM的模擬無法掌握北傳特性，中、高解析度CGCM表現則較佳，較多模式能掌握北傳訊號以及40天的波動週期。
本研究發現，耦合模式CGCM模擬季內振盪表現未必較大氣模式AGCM好。解析度高於2˚× 2˚的中、高解析度模式，加入耦合系統才有明顯的改善，解析度低於2˚× 2˚的模式則否。模式解析度必須高於一定水平之上，此時加入海氣耦合系統，才能夠改善季內盪的模擬。

摘要.......................................................I
致謝................................... ..................II
目錄.....................................................III
圖表目錄...................................................IV
第一章 前言................................................1
第二章 資料與研究方法
2.1 CMIP-5與AMIP資料選用................................7
2.2 CMIP-5簡介.........................................8
2.3 AMIP簡介...........................................9
2.4 模式評估方式........................................10
第三章 氣候平均與ISO之模擬分析
3.1 氣候平均場模擬......................................12
3.2 30-60天季內擾動模擬.................................17
第四章 ISO結構與傳遞模擬
4.1 ISO結構模擬........................................21
4.2 東、西風相位模擬....................................24
4.3 西北太平洋夏季ISO移行................................27
第五章 總結...............................................32
參考文獻...................................................36
附圖表.....................................................41

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