臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著金融市場開放日趨自由與快速推陳下，企業的經營成效往往與市場上的風險有著緊密的關連，因此企業使用高財務槓桿的衍生性金融商品來規避風險甚為普及。由於公司面對各種匯率風險時，選擇之避險工具有所不同，故本研究藉由Multinomial Logistic-AHP來評選台灣資訊科技產業在面對匯率風險時，最適規避風險之衍生性金融商品。因此，本研究首先經由文獻探討歸納影響經理人評選匯率避險商品之相關因素；再者，應用層級分析法(AHP)，透過專家問卷檢驗不同避險工具的選擇及避險效應的多層次問題，以求算避險商品與多層級因素之權重，進而了解實證研究結果與實務操作的落差；最後，將求算權重排序出最適避險工具。冀希此研究結果能夠提供後續研究者或經理人承作金融商品規避決策時之參考依據。

Subject to the increase of the liberalization of financial markets, the performance of the business is significantly related to the market risk. Therefore, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company chose different hedging instruments to faced a variety of exchange rate risk, therefore we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized by the literature relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, furthermore, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sorted the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

中文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．iii
英文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．iv
致謝辭 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．v
內容目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．vi
表目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．viii
圖目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．ix
第一章 緒論．．．．．．．．．．．1
第一節 研究背景與動機．．．．．．1
第二節 研究問題與目的．．．．．．3
第三節 研究架構與流程．．．．．．4
第二章 文獻探討．．．．．．．．．8
第一節 風險種類．．．．．．．．．8
第二節 公司的避險因子．．．．．．9
第三節 公司的避險工具．．．．．．12
第四節 多準則決策．．．．．．．．16
第三章 研究設計．．．．．．．．．18
第一節 樣本資料選取．．．．．．．19
第二節 Logistic迴歸分析．．．．22
第三節 AHP層級分析法．．．．．．26
第四章 實證結果與分析．．．．．．33
第一節 相關係數．．．．．．．．．33
第二節 Logistic迴歸分析．．．．35
第三節 Multinomial Logistic 迴歸分析．．35
第四節 AHP層級分析法．．．．．．．．．．36
第五節 Multinomial Logistic-AHP ．．38

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