臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

台灣南部主要流域測站的機率日雨量可藉由統計方法，將之分析整理。本研究選取「松梅、竹村、竹琦、白河、柳營、岡山、中安、南靖、義竹、麻豆、烏山頭、善化、旗山和屏東」等十四個測站，以傳統及本研究提出之方法推測各種頻率之最大日雨量加以比較。
應用機率理論推測或然性之水文量，乃基於水文資料具有獨立性與定常性;其常用的推測方法有最大值分布解法、常態分布法、對數常態分布解法、以及Pearson Ⅲ型與對數Pearson Ⅲ型分布解法等多種，惟各法孰優孰劣，迄今尚無定論，因此，比較各法推測結果，常以地域性與實測紀錄之週期性，作為衡量之依據。
由頻率分析結果得知，當所推測之機率雨量愈近於實測紀錄時，則其信賴度亦愈大。

The daily probability rainfall of South Taiwan can be analyzed by using statistical methods. Hydrologic applications of statistical methods followed the growth of statistical theory. This study collected observed rainfall of fourteen stations,and applied traditional methods and two modified methods proposed by the author to compare the probability daily rainfall of above stations.
Based on the independence and stationaries of the data, statistical theory can be applied to estimate probability rainfall. There are some probability distributions we often used such as extreme value distribution, normal distribution, log-normal distribution, Pearson type Ⅲ distribution and log-Pearson type Ⅲ distribution. But which is the best one is not confirmed. Therefore, we often compare estimated value with observed record.
From frequency analysis, we know that when estimated probability rainfall is closer to the observed record the confidence is larger.

摘要 I
英文摘要 II
謝誌 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
符號說明 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機 1
1-2 前人研究 2
1-3 本文組織 3
第二章 資料性質檢定 4
2-1 概述 4
2-2 自相關檢定 5
2-3 定常性檢定 6
2-4 異常值棄卻檢定 7
第三章 機率雨量推求法之應用與計算 9
3-1 概述 9
3-2 最大值分布 11
3-2.1 Gumbel解法 11
3-2.2 周文德解法 15
3-2.3 對數極端值A型分布法 15
3-2.4 Jenkinson解法 20
3-3 對數常態分布 22
3-3.1 岩井法 25
3-3.2 石原、高瀨之方法 26
3-3.3 順序機率法 29
3-4本研究之修正法 31
3-4.1 型之解法 31
3-4.2 型之解法 34
第四章 結果與討論 38
4-1 各地機率雨量與頻率曲線 38
4-2 頻率分析及各法推定結果比較 67
4-3 結論與建議 69
參考文獻 71

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