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研究生:廖志章
研究生(外文):Chih-Chang Liao
論文名稱:平面媒體推薦個股之績效探討—以聯合晚報為例
論文名稱(外文):A Study of Performance of Stocks Recommended by Newspaper-The Case of United Evening News
指導教授:楊踐為楊踐為引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jien-Wei Yang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立雲林科技大學
系所名稱:財務金融系碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:中文
論文頁數:38
中文關鍵詞:市場調整報紙推薦事件研究異常報酬
外文關鍵詞:Market ModelStock RecommendationAbnormal ReturnEven Study
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:358
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:3
以國內投資者結構而言,目前仍以小額投資者(散戶)佔絕大多數,而小額投資者的交易方式普遍有短期操作的現象,當其面對專業知識及資訊取得有限的情況下,媒體推薦資訊即成為投資人相當重要的資訊來源。在各種推薦資訊中,以報紙推薦資訊是最為方便取得,也對投資人影響最直接之資訊來源之一。因此本研究以聯合晚報每週六出刊之「本週?p商票選熱門選股」專欄為研究對象,探討報紙之推薦資訊對股價所造成的影響,及其是否具有資訊價值。
本研究之期間為民國98 年4 月4 日至99 年6 月26 日共63 週。
並將推薦資訊依不同的樣本選取與分組的方式,利用「事件研究法」進行研究,
並以「市場調整」估計異常報酬,得到以聯合晚報所推薦個股是不具資訊效果。
Using “Market-adjusted method” of event study, this paper tries to examine whether stocks recommended by United Evening News could outperform the market. The study period is from April 4, 2009 to June 26,2010. And we find the information content is not valid. In other words, investors could not rely on the recommendation provided by United Evening News.
中文摘要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- i
英文摘要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ii
誌謝 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- iii
目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- iv
表目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- v
圖目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- vi
一、 緒論----------------------------------------------------------------- 1
1.1 研究背景與動機-------------------------------------------------- 1
1.2 研究目的----------------------------------------------------------- 6
1.3 研究架構----------------------------------------------------------- 7
二、 文獻探討----------------------------------------------------------- 9
2.1 分析師推薦投資股票研究之理論基礎----------------------- 9
2.2 分析師推薦投資股票之股價行為研究----------------------- 11
三、 研究設計----------------------------------------------------------- 20
3.1 樣本與資料處理-------------------------------------------------- 20
3.2 研究方法----------------------------------------------------------- 21
四、 實證結果與分析-------------------------------------------------- 22
4.1 樣本描述----------------------------------------------------------- 22
4.2 實證結果分析----------------------------------------------------- 27
五、 結論與建議-------------------------------------------------------- 28
參考文獻 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 30
中文部分:
(1). 沈中華、李建然,2000,「事件研究法-財物與會計實證必備」,台
北:華泰文化事業公司。
(2). 林泉源,1988,「證券投資顧問事業績效及投資者投資行為特性之
研究」,台北:中華民國證券市場發展基金會。
(3). 王慧雯,1998,晚報推薦資訊對台灣股票市場影響之研究,國立成功大學工業管理研究所碩士論文。
(4). 余世珍,1998,投資顧問公司推薦個股之績效分析,私立逢甲大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
(5). 吳政毅,2000,以日內資料探討公開推薦之價值,國立中正大學財務金融所碩士論文。
(6). 林子貞,2000,台灣股市明牌對股價波動影響的實證研究,國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
(7). 邱淑珍,1997,股票公開推薦資訊有效性之實證研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。
(8). 馬若荃,1997,分析師票選股票之實證研究,國立中興大學會計研究所碩士論文。
(9). 陳建成,1999,股票公開推薦價值與影響因素之研究,國立中正大學財務金融所碩士論文。
(10). 陳信奇,2007,工商日報推薦個股資訊對股價影響之實證研究,國立雲林科技大財務金融所碩士論文。
(11). 張慧蘋,1995,券商票選股資訊內涵之實證研究,國立台灣大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
(12). 張嘉宏,2000,分析師投資推薦之績效持續性,私立逢甲大學會計與財稅研究所碩士論文。
(13). 曾昱達,2001,大眾媒體推薦資訊對台灣股票市場之影響,私立朝陽科技大學財務金融所碩士論文。
(14). 楊士仁、鄭優、趙政岷,1991,《財經資訊與媒體Q&A》,商周工具書系列,商周文化,台北市。
(15). 劉士豪,2001,報紙推薦資訊對股價行為影響之研究,國立台灣科技大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
(16). 劉千寧, 2001,以績效二分法探討分析師投資推薦之績效持續性,逢甲大學企業管理所碩士論文。
(17). 劉琇禎,2007,媒體推薦之資訊內涵-調整後事件研究法之實證分析,元智大學經營管理碩士班論文。
(18). 盧志昌,1999,證券投顧公司投資組合競賽傳達訊息之研究,國立中正大學財務金融所碩士論文。
(19). 盧美君,2000,由單純策略檢測專家推薦個股之投資績效,國立中正大學管理研究所碩士論文。

(20). 藍華真,1998,我國證券投資顧問事業公開推薦資訊內涵之實證研究,國立成功大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
(21). 簡淑加,2007,工商日報推薦個股資訊對股價影響之實證研究,國立雲林科技大財務金融所碩士論文。
(22). 蕭秋芸,1997,證券分析師選股建議有用性之實證研究,國立中興大學會計研究所碩士論文。
(23). 羅莉莉,1992,股市專家預測對股價的影響:以工商時報「票選個股」專欄為例,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。

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(2). Ball, Ray and Phillip Brown, (1968), ”An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers.”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 6, pp. 159-178.
(3). Barber, Brad M. and Douglas Loeffler, (1993), “The ''Dartboard'' Column:
Second-Hand Information and Price Pressure”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 28, pp. 273-284.
(4). Beaver, H. W., (1968), “ The Information Content of Annual Earnings
Announcement”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.6, pp. 67-92.
(5). Beneish, Messod D., (1991), “Stock Price and the Dissemination of Analysts''
Recommendation”, Journal of Business, Vol. 64, pp. 393-416.
(6). Bjerring, James H., Josef Lakonishok, and Theo Vermaelen, (1983), “Stock Priceand Financial Analysts'' Recommendations”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 38, pp.187-204.
(7). Black, F., (1973), “Yes Virginia, There is Hope: Test of the Value Ranking System”, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol.29, pp. 10-14.
(8). Brown, Stephen J. and Jerold B. Warner, (1985), ”Using Daily Stock Returns:The Case of Event Study “, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 14, pp. 3-31.
(9). Chandy, P. R., John W. Peavy, and William Reichenstein, (1993), “A Note on theValue Line Stock Highlights”, Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 16, p.171-179.
(10). Choi, James J., (2000), “The Value Line Enigma: The Sum of Known Parts?” ,
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 35, pp.485-498.
(11). Clark, Holloway, (1981), “A Note on Testing in Aggressive Investment StrategyUsing Value Line Ranks”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 36, pp. 711-719.
(12). Copeland, Thomas E. and David Mayers, (1982), “The Value Line Enigma (1965- 1978): A Case Study of Performance Evaluation Issues”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 289-321.
(13). Davies, Peter Lloyd and Michael Canes, (1978), “Stock Prices and the Publication of Second-Hand Information”, Journal of Business, Vol. 51, pp.43-55.
(14). Dimson, Elory and Paul Marsh, (1984), “An Analysis of Brokers'' and Analyst''sUnpublished Forecasts of UK Stock Returns”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, pp.1257-1291.
(15). Fama, Eugene F., (1965), “The Behavior of Stock Market Prices”, Journal of Business, Vol.38, pp. 34-105.
(16). Fama, Eugene F., (1970), “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, pp. 383-417.
(17). Fama, Eugene F., (1991), “Efficient Capital Markets: Ⅱ”, Journal of Finance,Vol. 46, pp. 1575-1611.
(18). French, Kenneth R. and Richard Roll, (1986), “Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of Information and the Reaction of Traders”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 5-22.
(19). Greene, Jason and Scott Smart, (1999), “Liquidity Provision and Noise Trading:
Evidence from the‘Investment Dartboard’ Column”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 54,
pp. 1885-1899.
(20). Grossman, Sanford J. and Joseph E. Stiglitz, (1980), “On the Impossibility of
Informationally Efficient Markets”, American Economic Review, Vol. 70, pp.393-408.
(21). Groth, John. C., Wilbur G. Lewellen, Gray G. Schlarbaum, and Ronald C. Lease,(1979), “An Analysis of Brokerage House Securities Rcommendation”,Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 35, pp. 32-40.
(22). Haugen, Robert A. and Nardin L. Baker, (1993), ”Interpreting the Evidence on Risk and Expected Return: Comment”, Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol.19,pp. 36-43.
(23). Hillmer, S. C. and P. L. Yu, (1979), ”The Market Speed of Adjustment to New Information”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 7, pp. 321-346.
(24). Huth, William L. and Brian A. Maris, (1992), “Large and Small Firm Stock PriceResponse to ‘Heard On The Street‘ Recommendation”, Journal of Accounting,
Auditing, and Finance, Vol. 7, pp. 27-47.
(25). Jaffe, Jeffrey F. and James M. Mahoney, (1999), “The Performance of Investment Newsletters”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.53, pp. 289-307.
(26). Kim, Sok Tae, Ji-Chai Lin, and Myron B. Slovin, (1997), “Market Structure,
Informed Trading, and Analysts'' Recommendation”, Journal of Financial Quantitative Analyst, Vol. 32, pp. 507-524.
(27). Lee, C. W. J, (1986), “Information Content of Financial Column”, Journal of
Economics and Business, Vol. 38, pp. 27-39.
(28). Liang, Bing, (1999), “Price Pressure: Evidence from the "Dartboard" Column”,Journal of Business, Vol. 72, pp. 119-135.
(29). Liu , Pu , Stanley D. Smith, and Aznat A . Syed, (1990), “Stock Price Reactionsto the Wall Street Journal''s Securities Recommendations”, Journal of Financialand Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 25, pp. 399-410.
(30). Palmon, Oded, Huey-Lian Sun, and Alex P. Tang, (1994), “The Impact of Publication of Analysts’ Recommendations on Returns and Trading Volume”,The Financial Review, Vol. 29, pp. 395-417.
(31). Peterson, David R., (1995), “The Informative Role of the Value Line InvestmentSurvey: Evidence from ‘Stock Highlights’”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 30, pp. 607-618.
(32). Peterson, David R. and Pamela P. Peterson, (1995), “Abnormal Returns and
Analysts'' Earnings Forecast Revisions Associated with the Publication of ‘Stock
Highlights’ by Value Line Investment Survey”, Journal of Financial Research,
Vol. 18, pp. 465-477.
(33). Pruitt, Stephen, B. F. V. Ness, and R. A. Van Ness, (2000),“Clientele Trading inResponse to Published Information: Evidence from the Dartboard Column”,Journal of Financial Research, Vol.23, pp. 1-13.
(34). Samuelson, P. A., (1965), “Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly”, Industrial Management Review, Vol. 6, pp. 41-49.
(35). Sant, Rajiv and Mir A. Zaman, (1996), “Market Reaction to Business Week‘Inside Wall Street’ Column: A Self-fulfilling Prophecy”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 20, pp. 617-643.
(36). Stickel, Scott E., (1985), “The Effect of Value Line Investment Survey Rank Changes on Common Stock Price”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 14, pp.121-143.
(37). Trahan, Emery A. and Paul J. Bolster, (1995), “The Impact of Barron''s Recommendations on Stock Prices”, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 34, pp. 3-16.
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