臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於現今科技的進步，製造技術快速發展，武器系統各項零附件其壽命週期平均僅4至7年即已達汰換更新年限。以致於大多數武器系統在進入量產時，即會遭遇到製造商源消失及物料短缺問題。
本研究目的在客觀的環境下，探討不同時期準則權重對方案之影響，來建構動態決策模型。其中運用問卷設計採用修正式德爾菲法，並將獲得的數據帶入後續的研究方法中。接著依據施測結果使用灰關聯分析以及逼近理想解方案排列法，選擇最適決策方案。其中時間權重值是以六個時間區段及分別以維修技術、組織變革及國防預算等變化求取，最後評量不同方案的排序。本研究結果期能提供國軍後勤相關計畫部門，未來面臨消失性零附件籌補決策中，能訂定一個明確、動態的參考模型，以提升國軍後勤整體戰力。

Due to progresses of modern technology and fast manufacture technology development, parts and accessories of a weapon system reaches their renewal years with merely 4 to 7 years in average, resulting in the instant encounter of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages to most of the weapon systems entering their mass production.
This research aims to discuss influences to programs by criteria and weights in different time periods under an objective situation. We use Modified Delphi method to design our test questionnaires, and substitute the obtained data into the upcoming research methods. Then, the Grey Relational Analysis and TOPSIS were used to choose the fittest decision alternative based on test results. In this research, time weighting values are separated into six time periods and sought based on maintenance techniques, organizational reformation and national defense budgets. We expect the research result to provide information for the logistics-related departments of National Armed Forces, can build a clear and dynamic reference model, and to facilitate the overall strength of logistic forces when facing the decision making on Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages.

誌謝 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究範圍與限制 5
1.4 研究架構 6
第二章 文獻探討 8
2.1 國軍零附件消失性商源探討 8
2.1.1 DMSMS範圍 8
2.1.2 DMSMS管理模式 9
2.1.3 DMSMS解決方案 12
2.1.4 小結 12
2.2 決策權重之評估與選取 14
2.2.1 權重估算 14
2.2.2 權重方法 14
2.2.3 小結 15
2.3 動態多準則決策方法 15
2.3.1 多準則階段建立 16
2.3.2 多準則決策方法 17
2.3.3 小結 18
第三章 研究方法 22
3.1修正式德爾菲法（Modified Delphi Method） 22
3.1.1 專家訪談程序 24
3.1.2 問卷統計與分析 25
3.2 逼近理想解方案排列法（TOPSIS） 25
3.3 結合灰關聯數與TOPSIS計算 27
3.4 本章小結 31
第四章 實證結果與分析 32
4.1修正式德爾菲法問卷結果分析 33
4.2計算結果分析 38
4.3 本章小結 40
第五章 結論與建議 41
5.1結論 41
5.2未來建議 42
參考文獻 43
附錄1 47
附錄2 51
附錄3 56

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