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研究生:張益誠
研究生(外文):I.C. Chang
論文名稱:應用因子分析方法為臺灣地區建構永續發展趨勢評估指標系統
指導教授:於幼華於幼華引用關係
指導教授(外文):Y.H. Yu
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:環境工程學研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:環境工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2001
畢業學年度:89
語文別:中文
論文頁數:224
中文關鍵詞:永續發展永續發展指標指標合成因子分析方法
外文關鍵詞:Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development IndicatorIndicator AggregationFactor Analysis Method
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:171
  • 點閱點閱:1962
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:396
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:6
在建構永續發展量測工具的過程中,除因國情或對永續觀點的優先價值權衡不同而出現不同的發展局面外,指標合成(Aggregation)之評價與權重,是最具爭議性的步驟。本研究乃以一種較客觀合理的數理統計方式,提出一輔助程序,名為「海島臺灣的永續發展趨勢評估指標系統」(SDTI, Sustainable Development Trend Indicator System for Island Taiwan ),作為推動邁向永續發展及作為監測永續發展進程趨勢狀態的系統化量測工具。
臺灣乃屬於一海島國家,自然環境背景有別於其他大陸型之國家如歐、美等國,因此,在參考國際上永續發展指標系統的發展研究上,當以同類型之國家為主要參考較適切,基於此種海島臺灣及指標系統科學思維的觀點,進而按本研究既設之評估時、空尺度及政府部門既有之資料庫存,形成SDTI系統之「評估階層架構」(Assessment hierarchical framework),再採「因子分析方法」(FAM, Factor Analysis Method)就關聯指標集(Set of indicators)之趨勢相關結構(Correlation structure),進一步將指標向上合成以達綜合趨勢評估之目的。
在成果呈現的設計上,分別採「長期性」(Long-term)之永續發展逐時趨勢及今年與去年比較觀點之「短期性」(Short-term)警示燈號尺度(Warning-light colour codes)等兩種視覺化設計(Visualized presentation design)方式來加以傳達與表現,以期使讀者對迄今永續發展的趨勢脈動關係望圖識意。
SDTI系統為一具國際相容性及主、客觀意識,且合乎海島臺灣發展特色的可調整式永續發展量測工具,但統計模式的應用,仍有其潛在限制存在,即輸入資料品質的重要性,未來若能結合「永續發展資訊系統」之落實及透過系統架構之再斟酌共識,將可為一系統化永續發展決策導向的整合式指標系統參考例示。
This thesis is devoted to developing a set of indicators for the purpose of measuring as well as monitoring the trend of national progress mode toward Sustainable Development (SD) in Taiwan.
By using a relatively objective statistical method, this study has tried successfully in the process of “indicator aggregation” and a supplementary tool, namely, SDTI (Sustainable Development Trend Indicator System for Island Taiwan) has been developed to assist in that process.
Taking into consideration the existing data situation in Taiwan, this study has employed the Factor Analysis Method (FAM) to integrate step by step the indicators so that a long-term as well as a short-term trend of SD can be separately described in both figures and diagrams.
Fifty-four out of ninety-eight indicators developed from this study have shown that the long-term trend of the national development has been positively toward sustainability. However, yearly progress between 1997 and 1998 was noted by the SDTI system to be quite unsustainable.
In summary, the SDTI system is very much dependent upon the validity of data, therefore, the management strategy, procedures for data quality control and assurance are essential for this indicator and information system.
封面
中.英文摘要
圖表目錄
第壹篇.前言
第一章研究的背景與動機目的
1.1指標的功能性
1.2永績發展指標的必要性
1.3永績發展量測工具的國際發展脈動
第二章研究設計與方法
2.1侯選指標清單的建立
2.2資料收集原則與管道清單的建立
2.3海島臺灣發展特色的補充指標
2.4可操作指標的過濾與鄰選原則
2.5指標分群歸類原則與系統架構
2.6FAM的使用特色與理論概念
2.7因數分析模型
2.8指標的合成與分析結果呈現的視覺化設計
第三章小結
3.SDTI系統的評估層級
3.2風雲再起的多變數分析方法
3.3統計模式的潛在限制
3.4後記
第貳篇永績發展典範與相關指標系統之文獻回顧
第一章永績發展理念演進之時空脈絡與意涵
1.1古中國與西方近代永績發展思想的起源
1.2環境問題與人類發展的互動關係
1.3永績發展的哲學
1.4永績發展的意義與內涵
1.5從永績理念羔看環境經濟與社會的互動關係
1.6國際與臺灣地區的永績發展進程
1.7小結
第二章指標的名義與永績發展指標之演澤
2.1指標.指數與環境指標的名義
2.2指標的定位
2.3永績發展指標之演譯歷程
2.4小結
第三章永績發展指標系統的名義與設計原則
3.1永績發展指標之延申目的
3.2永績發展指標的意義與功能
3.3永績發展指標的鄰選原則
3.4永績發展指標系統的分群與歸類原則
3.5永績發展指標系統的架構模式
3.6指標合成之必要性
3.7指標合成之評價方式與指標系統的視覺化設計
3.8小結
第四章國內外相親指標各級組織訴發展脈動與經驗
4.1國內外永績發展相關指標系統發展脈動與經  驗
4.2永績發展相關量測工具類型之歸納
4.3小結
第參篇研究設計與方法
第一章指標系統的設計與成形
1.1建立候選指標清單
1.1.1國內外發展狀況之文獻回顧
1.1.2候選指標清單的建立
1.2評估的時.空尺度設定
1.2.1空間尺度範圍定義
1.2.2資料樣本評估之時間尺度範圍定義
1.3建立指標資料庫存收集原則與管道清單
1.4海島臺灣的發展特色與補充指標之鄰選原則
1.4.1臺灣的環境與發展背景特色
1.4.2臺灣地區的永績發展經驗與原則
1.4.3海島臺灣發展特色與補充指標鄰選原則之歸納
1.5可操作指標的鄰選與分群歸類邏輯
1.5.1備用可操作指標的過濾原則
1.5.2可操作指標的鄰選
1.5.3指標的分群歸類邏輯與原則
1.6小結
第二章因數分析方法論
2.1多變數統計方法與專家調查法使用特色之比較
2.1.1導論
2.1.2問卷調查法的使用特色
2.1.3因數分析方法的使用物色
2.2因數分析方法的模式與基本原理
2.2.1因數分析的數學模式
2.2.2因數負荷與共通性的統計意義
2.2.3因數分析模型參數的估計與共同因數的抽取
2.2.4共同因數個數的決定
2.2.5共同因數解的非唯一性
2.2.6因數旋轉
2.2.7因數分數
2.3因數分析的應用
2.4因數分析結果的詮釋
2.5因數分析的實用意義及分析參數的名義
2.6小結
第三章指標合成的研究設計與設算
3.1指標變項的前處理原則
3.1.1指標變項原始資料的補遺與無因次化
3.1.2指標變項一致化轉換原則
3.2階層式因數分析設計
3.2.1指標專案或變項的合成
3.2.2指標次分類階層的合成
3.2.3指標分類階層的合成
3.2.4核心指標群階層的合成
3.3成果表達的視覺化設計與短期性評估燈號尺度的制定原則
3.3.1視覺化設計
3.3.2燈號尺度及相對永績發展走向的設計
3.3.3燈號尺度制定原則
3.4指標合成的研究設算簡例
第肆篇結果與討論
第一章結果
1.1永績發展驅勢評估指標系統之階層架構
1.2可操作指標的代表意義與詮釋
1.3指標變項的一致性清單
1.4建立指標評估階層之綜合趨勢表現指數
1.4.1指標專案階層的主成份因數分析
1.4.1.1人口狀況
1.4.1.2經濟狀況
1.4.1.3文教與休閒狀況
1.4.1.4社會關注與福祉
1.4.1.5能源收支
1.4.1.6水資源收支
1.4.1.7土地與自然資源收支
1.4.1.8水環境負荷
1.4.1.9空汙與噪音負荷
1.41.10固廢與毒性物質負荷
1.4.1.11環境關注與福祉
1.4.2環境次分類階層主成份因數分析
1.4.2.1能資源收支
1.4.2.2環境壓力負荷
1.4.3核心指標群主成份因數分析
1.4.3.1人文經社類
1.4.3.2環境類
1.4.4整體表現階層主成份因數分析
1.5評估階層間永績發展趨勢評估結果的展現
1.5.1長期性永續發展趨勢評估
1.5.2短期性永續發展趨向評估
第二章討論
2.1就因數分析方法的實用
2.2就指標變項的鄰選與資料取得
2.3就評估結果
2.4就評估結果之借鏡
2.5小結
第伍篇結論與展望建議
第一章結論
第二章後續研究之展望建議
第陸篇參考文獻
第一章英文部分
第二章中文部分
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