臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以Lotka-Volterra模型探討台灣矽晶圓廠商FS科技(股)公司以及GW股份有限公司的動態競合關係。台灣半導體產值占2017年名目GDP達14%，對台灣經濟成長有重大的貢獻。在半導體中矽晶圓是主要的關鍵材料，沒有充足的矽晶圓供應，就沒有足夠的IC供給，沒有高品質的矽晶圓供應，也就沒有高良率的IC產出。尤其這幾年半導體矽晶圓供需失衡，矽晶圓廠的相關動態受到晶圓代工廠及DRAM廠的高度關注。由台灣矽晶圓廠商的每月營業額預測趨勢可推估台灣半導體產業的發展。然而如何串聯整個產業以及其供應鏈，準確的預測模型是產業發展策略的重要工具。本研究以全球第二大矽晶圓廠Sumco 與T企業合資公司-FS與全球第三大矽晶圓廠-GW為本研究對象，以其每月營業額驗證是否存在著競爭亦或合作的關係，並且預測未來FS以及GW的每月營業額，是否存在著均衡關係。
本研究結果顯示，FS與GW的營業額競合模式為FS對GW的營收成長有幫助和GW的營收成長會對FS的營收成長有幫助的互利共生關係。探討互利共生的原因可能為1.同在台灣的市場之中，更展現了群聚效應，在晶圓代工與DRAM產業的成長之下，能夠共存共榮，攜手發展; 2.由於高科技產業擁有快速的技術變革，產品生命週期短以及產品和技術創新的特徵，FS以及GW同時提供服務於半導體大廠，其要求更需達到一定水準之上，使得相關的技術與能力在知識外溢效果下，能夠一起獲得成長。在模型預測能力上，Lotka-Volterra模型對FS與GW的月營收的樣本資料有都有較佳的配適準確度與整體解釋能力。在均衡分析方面，在未來長期的競合關係之下，FS每月營收會逐漸收斂到新台幣1,203百萬元。GW每月營收在未來長期的競合關係之下，會逐漸成長並收斂到新台幣5,762百萬元。此結果也說明FS和GW在長期競合下，將會達到穩定均衡的狀態。

In this study, the Loka-Volterra model was used to investigate the dynamic co-opetition relationship between FS Technology Corporation and GW Co., Ltd. for revenue trend with Lotka-Volterra Model. The result shows the relation between FS and GW is Mutualism. FS’s revenue growth benefits GW, and GW revenue growth benefits FS. The possible reason is that based on the growth of Semiconductor Foundry and DRAM industry, semiconductor upstream and downstream industries can exhibit clustering effects. Semiconductor industries have the features of rapid technological transformation, short product life cycle, product and process innovation performance. The spillover effect of the technologies and capabilities lead to the growth of the semiconductor industry. FS and GW can provide services to customers and jointly enjoy good profits. Our results also conclude that Lotka-Volterra model has excellent prediction ability and fit the data samples well since the competitive and cooperative relation between FS and GW are considered. The results of equilibrium analysis FS’s and GW’s revenue will be convergent to NT$ 1,203 million per month, and NT$ 5,762 million per month. This result indicates the relation between FS and GW will have stable equilibrium in long-term competition.

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究動機與背景 1
1.2研究範圍與目的 8
1.3研究程序與步驟 9
第二章 半導體產業概述 12
2.1半導體產業定義 12
2.2台灣半導體產業發展歷程與現況 14
2.3矽晶圓產業概況 18
2.4台灣矽晶圓產業概況 20
第三章 文獻探討 24
3.1創新擴散理論(Innovation-Diffusion Theory) 24
3.2 Bass Model擴散模型 25
3.3 Lotka-Volterra競爭模型 27
第四章 研究設計 33
4.1研究樣本 33
4.2 Lotka-Volterra模型 34
4.3 Lotka-Volterra模型參數估計方法與均衡分析 35
4.4模型配適與精確度分析 36
4.4.1 MAPE精確度分析 37
4.5.2 Bass模型 38
第五章 實證結果與分析 41
5.1參數估計結果 43
5.2 Lotka-Volterra模型準確度分析 47
5.3 Lotka-Volterra模型之均衡分析 54
第六章 結論與建議 62
6.1研究結論 62
6.2研究建議 66
參考文獻 68

中文文獻
1. 丁志華. (2018). 「矽說台灣—台灣半導體產業發展與全球地位.」 科學發展, 541期,頁次2-29.
2. 方柏翔. (2016). 工業 4.0 對半導體製造業之影響分析.
3. 王信陽. (2017). 「半導體產業將扮演台灣產業發展主要動能.」 機械工業雜誌 411期,頁次 6-14.
4. 江沛昀. (2006). 影響不同創新採用者口碑擴散意願之因素差異.
5. 李揚、鐘棠祺. (2015). 「半導體產業之績效評估-跨國分析與比較.」 東吳經濟商學學報,89冊, 頁次61-88.
6. 張俊鴻. (2015). 「Lotka-Volterra 模型於台灣晶圓代工產業營收之應用分析.」 交通大學管理學院管理科學學程學位論文.
7. 張博超. (2017). 台灣半導體產業發展經緯及未來社會之成長戰略. 淡江大學. Available from Airiti AiritiLibrary database. (2017年)
8. 許文誠, 徐木蘭, 歐陽惠華. (2005). 「台灣矽晶圓材料產業關鍵成功因素之探討.」 科技管理學刊, 10冊3期, 頁次69-96.
9. 許進發、虞孝成. (2004). 台灣矽晶圓材料產業分析與競爭策略之研究.
10. 連心瑜, 羅美芳與高碧霞. (2014). 「創新擴散理論之發展與護理應用.」 長庚護理, 25冊4期, 頁次404-412.
11. 蔡璧徽、林淵源. (2014). 「擴散模型於半導體區位與銷售分佈之應用分析. 」商略學報, 6冊3期,頁次 167-180.
12. 蔡璧徽、許加融. (2017). 「納入季節效應之擴散模型於主機板銷售之預測分析.」 [Application of Diffusion Model Incorporating the Seasonal Effect in Predicting Motherboard Sales]. 慈濟科技大學學報 4期, 頁次13-34.
13. 蔡璧徽、陳先齊. (2009). 「台灣與全球積體電路廠商研發外溢效果分析. 」創業管理研究, 4冊2期, 頁認29-57.

英文文獻
14. Ai, C.-H., and Wu, H.-C. (2017). "Cross-Regional Corporations and Learning Effects in a Local Telecommunications Industry Cluster of China." Journal of the Knowledge Economy, vol. 8, no. 1 , pp. 337-355.
15. Audretsch, D. B., and Feldman, M. P. (1996). "R&D Spillovers and the Geography of Innovation and Production." The American economic review, vol. 86, no. 3, pp. 630-640.
16. Bass, F. M. (1969). "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables." Management science, vol. 15, no. 5 , pp. 215-227.
17. Bell, M., and Albu, M. (1999). "Knowledge Systems and Technological Dynamism in Industrial Clusters in Developing Countries." World development, vol. 27, no. 9 , pp. 1715-1734.
18. Chyi, Y.-L., Lai, Y.-M., and Liu, W.-H. (2012). "Knowledge Spillovers and Firm Performance in the High-Technology Industrial Cluster." Research Policy, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 556-564.
19. Figueiredo, O., Guimarães, P., and Woodward, D. (2015). "Industry Localization, Distance Decay, and Knowledge Spillovers: Following the Patent Paper Trail." Journal of Urban Economics, vol. 89, pp. 21-31.
20. Fourt, L. A., and Woodlock, J. W. (1960). "Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products." The Journal of Marketing, pp. 31-38.
21. Gause, G. F., Nastukova, O. K., & Alpatov, W. W. (1934). "The Influence of Biologically Conditioned Media on the Growth of a Mixed Population of Paramecium Caudatum and P. Aureliax." Journal of Animal Ecology, vol. 3, no. 2, pp.222-230.
22. Gavina, M. K. A., Tahara, T., Tainaka, K.-i., Ito, H., Morita, S., Ichinose, G., . . . Yoshimura, J. (2018). "Multi-Species Coexistence in Lotka-Volterra Competitive Systems with Crowding Effects." Scientific reports, vol.8, no. 1, pp.1198.
23. Han, Y., and Zhang, Z. (2018). "Impact of Free Sampling on Product Diffusion Based on Bass Model." Electronic Commerce Research, vol. 18, no. , pp. 125-141.
24. Hsieh, H.-N., Hu, T.-S., Chia, P.-C., and Liu, C.-C. (2014). "Knowledge Patterns and Spatial Dynamics of Industrial Districts in Knowledge Cities: Hsinchu, Taiwan." Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 41, no. 12, pp. 5587-5596.
25. Ito, T., and Lin, W.-L. (2001). "Race to the Center: Competition for the Nikkei 225 Futures Trade." Journal of Empirical Finance, vol. 8, no. 3, pp.219-242.
26. Jiang, D., Ji, C., Li, X., and OʼRegan, D. (2012). "Analysis of Autonomous Lotka–Volterra Competition Systems with Random Perturbation." Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, vol. 390, no. 2, pp. 582-595
27. Kim, J., Lee, D.-J., and Ahn, J. (2006). "A Dynamic Competition Analysis on the Korean Mobile Phone Market Using Competitive Diffusion Model." Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 174-182
28. Lee, S.-J., Lee, D.-J., and Oh, H.-S. (2005). "Technological Forecasting at the Korean Stock Market: A Dynamic Competition Analysis Using Lotka–Volterra Model." Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72, no. 8, pp. 1044-1057.
29. Lee, W. S., Choi, H. S., and Sohn, S. Y. (2018). "Forecasting New Product Diffusion Using Both Patent Citation and Web Search Traffic." PloS one, vol. 13, no. 4, e0194723.
30. Lei, H.-S., and Huang, C.-H. (2014). "Geographic Clustering, Network Relationships and Competitive Advantage: Two Industrial Clusters in Taiwan." Management Decision, vol. 52, no. 5, pp. 852-871.
31. Leslie, P. (1957). "An Analysis of the Data for Some Experiments Carried out by Gause with Populations of the Protozoa, Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum." Biometrika, vol. 44, no. 3/4, pp. 314-327.
32. Li, S., Chen, H., and Zhang, G. (2017). "Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2017
33. Liang, F. H. (2017). "Does Foreign Direct Investment Improve the Productivity of Domestic Firms? Technology Spillovers, Industry Linkages, and Firm Capabilities." Research Policy, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 138-159.
34. Lotka, A. J. (1926). "Elements of Physical Biology." Science Progress in the Twentieth Century, vol. 21, no. 82, pp. 341-343.
35. Mahajan, V., Muller, E., and Bass, F. M. (1991). "New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research." In Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior, pp.125-177: Springer.
36. Mansfield, J. H. (1961). "Informed Choice in the Law of Torts." La. L. Rev. 22 , pp. 17.
37. Marasco, A., Picucci, A., and Romano, A. (2016). "Market Share Dynamics Using Lotka–Volterra Models." Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 105, pp. 49-62..
38. Martin, C. A., and Witt, S. F. (1989). "Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accuracy of Several Quantitative Methods." International Journal of forecasting, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 7-19.
39. Massiani, J., and Gohs, A. (2015). "The Choice of Bass Model Coefficients to Forecast Diffusion for Innovative Products: An Empirical Investigation for New Automotive Technologies." Research in transportation economics, vol. 50, pp. 17-28.
40. Nili, F., Delfino, D., and Simmons, P. J. (1999). "Infectious Disease and Economic Growth: The Case of Tuberculosis."
41. Patel, A. (2012). "A Lotka-Volterra Competition Model of Social Media Sites."
42. Porter, M. E. (1990). "New Global Strategies for Competitive Advantage." Planning Review, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 4-14.
43. Qian, S. (2017). "Knowledge Spillover and High-Tech Industry Cluster: A Literature Review." Paper presented at the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.
44. Rogers, E. M., and Shoemaker, F. (1983). "Diffusion of Innovation: A Cross-Cultural Approach." New York
45. Sabourin, V., and Pinsonneault, I. (1997). "Strategic Formation of Competitive High Technology Clusters." International Journal of Technology Management, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 165-179.
46. Sale, R. S., Mesak, H. I., and Inman, R. A. (2017). "A Dynamic Marketing-Operations Interface Model of New Product Updates." European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 257, no. 1, pp. 233-242.
47. Tsai, B.-H. (2017). "Predicting the Competitive Relationships of Industrial Production between Taiwan and China Using Lotka–Volterra Model." Applied Economics, vol. 49, no. 25, pp. 2428-2442.
48. Tsai, B.-H., and Li, Y. (2011). "Modelling Competition in Global Lcd Tv Industry." Applied Economics, vol. 43, no. 22, pp. 2969-2981.
49. Tsai, S.-F., and Zhou, X. K. (2015). "Study on Ict Industrial Integration in New Industrial Revolution: A Survey of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan." International Journal of Business and Management, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 95.
50. Volterra, V. (1926). "Fluctuations in the Abundance of a Species Considered Mathematically." Nature Publishing Group.
51. Waldrogel, J. (1983). The period in the Volterra–Lotka predator-prey model. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 20(6), 1264-1272.
52. Wang, C.-T., and Chiu, C.-S. (2014). "Competitive Strategies for Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry in a New World Economy." Technology in Society, vol. 36, pp. 60-73.
53. Wani, T. A. (2015). "Innovation Diffusion Theory."
54. Yoon, I., and Yoon, S. K. (2017). "An Estimation of Offset Supply for the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme Using the Bass Diffusion Model." International Journal of Global Warming, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 99-115.