臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文研究1991-2013年期間自然資源基礎型經濟體-蒙古，金融發展與經濟成長間潛在的非對稱因果關係。使用Hatemi-J (2012)的非對稱(正向/負向)因果方法分析，實證結果顯示，蒙古的負向經濟發展(CoalR/GDP)與正向金融發展(M2/GDP)，及負向經濟發展(CoalR/GDP)與負向金融發展(M2/GDP)呈雙向非對稱因果關係，再者，正向金融發展(M2/GDP)單項領先正向經濟發展(CoalR/GDP)。此發現存在一重要的政策意涵，加強蒙古的金融部門政策將有助於推動整體經濟發展。

In this paper we aim to examine the causal nexus between financial development and economic growth in Mongolia within the period of 1991-2013 via Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test (2012) which is able to separate positive and negative shocks in analysis. We find that bi-directional asymmetric causality running from negative CoalR/GDP to positive M2/GDP and from negative CoalR/GDP to negative M2/GDP. Furthermore, unidirectional asymmetric causality running from positive M2/GDP to positive CoalR/GDP. The results have important policy implications for these countries’ banking and energy efficiency systems.

中文摘要…………………………………………….…………………………………..i
ABSTRACT ……………………………………………………………………………...ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ……………………………………………………………...iii
TABLE OF CONTEXTS ………………………………………………………………...iv
LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………...vi
LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………………………………vii
Chapter I. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………….1
1.1 Background and Motivation ……………..……………………………………….1
1.1.1 Background ……………………………………………………………….1
1.1.2 Motivation ………………………………………………………………...3
1.2 Objective ………………………………………………………………………….5
1.3 Chapter outline ……………………………………………………………………5
Chapter II. LITERATURE REVIEW …………………………………………………….6
Chapter III. DATA AND METHODOLIGY ……………………………………………..9
3.1 DATA ……………………………………………………………………………….9
3.2 METHODOLOGY ……………………………………………………………10
Chapter IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS ……………………………………………………16
4.1 Unit Root test ……………………………………………………………………...16
4.2 Granger Causality test ……………………………………………………………17
4.3 Asymmetric Causality test ……………………………………………………18
Chapter V. CONCLUSION ……………………………………………………………21
APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………………22
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