臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to explore relationships among energy consumption (EC), real gross domestic product (GDP), Oil Price (WTOILP), export (EXP) and import (IM) for Nigeria and Ethiopia. This study is interesting in the sense that Nigeria and Ethiopia are currently one of the fasted growing economics and largest population in Africa, but still endure energy problems. The data are collected at the yearly interval from the World Bank, IMF, EIA, spanning from 1980 to 2012. Time series techniques especially Granger causality test, Johansen test, Cointegration, and VAR were utilized to test the causal relationships. In Nigeria, there is a bidirectional causality between energy consumption and GDP for both Nigeria. There is a unidirectional causalities running from Oil price to energy consumption, energy consumption to exports, GDP to oil price. In Ethiopia, there is a bidirectional causality between energy consumption and GDP. There is also a unidirectional causal relationship running from import to export, energy to imports. After reviewing the results, the author suggests specific policies.

Key words: energy consumption, gross domestic product, oil price, import, export, Granger causality, Johansen, Cointegration, VAR

CONTENTS
ABSTRACT iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv
CONTENTS v
LIST OF TABLES vii
LIST OF FIGURES ix
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Research Background 1
1.2. Definitions of the Variables 4
1.2.1. Energy Consumption EC 5
1.2.2. Gross Domestic Product GDP 5
1.2.3. Export and Import 6
1.2.4. Oil Price 6
1.3. Research Motivation and Contribution 6
1.4. Research Objectives 7
1.5. Research Scope 7
1.6. Research Structure 8
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 10
2.1. Energy Consumption (EC) 10
2.2. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 12
2.3. Export (EXP) 14
2.4. Import (IMP) 15
2.5. Interrelationship among Research Variables 16
2.5.1. Relationship between Goss Domestic Product and Energy Consumption 16
2.5.2. Relationship between Exports, Imports, and Energy Consumption 20
2.5.3. Relationship between Oil Price and Energy Consumption 21
CHAPTER THREE DATA AND METHODOLOGY 23
3.1. Unit Root Test 23
3.2. Test Dickey Fuller 24
3.3. Test Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt and Shin 27
3.4. Optimum Lag Length of ADF Test 27
3.5. Cointegration Test 28
3.6. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) 30
3.7. Vector Error Correction Model 31
3.8. Variance Decomposition 31
3.9. Granger Causality Test 32
CHAPTER FOUR EMPIRICAL ANALYSES AND DISCUSSIONS 35
4.1 Unit Root Test 36
4.2 Optimum Lag Length of Unit Root Test 43
4.3 Co-integration Test 46
4.4 Granger Causality Test 50
4.5 Variance Decomposition Function 55
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 61
5.1 Conclusions 61
5.2 Policy Implications 63
5.3 Limitations and Future Research 66
REFERENCES 68
APPENDICES 72

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