臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於臺灣地方政府債務不斷攀升財政狀況逐年惡化，近年來又發生地方政府財務調度不佳，甚至影響公務員薪水的發放，因此本研究以Bohn (2005)模型為理論基礎，探討臺灣地方財政是否具永續性？蒐集臺灣23個直轄市及縣(市)政府2001年至2014年資料，除延續劉品柔(2014)的研究方法進行探討外，在相關變數的選取上，鑒於過去研究中公共財務管理良莠對地方財政的影響僅有敘述性分析，因此本研究特別納入臺灣地方財務行政實務運作的相關變數，如預決算差額、短期借款及借入款等與公共財務管理相關的變數，以確實符合探討臺灣地方政府是否具有永續性之研究。

以單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量自我迴歸分析以及追蹤資料固定效果迴歸分析，探討債務占所得的比率對預算賸餘占所得的比率之影響，依據單根檢定的結果，人均公共債務總額占所得之比率為非定態序列，表示臺灣地方政府2001年至2014年的人均公共債務總額占所得之比率並未收斂至0或維持不變，不符合財政永續性的定義。而迴歸結果顯示短期債務總額及未償債務餘額占所得比率對預算賸餘占所得之比率影響不顯著，表示長期債務及短期債務並不影響財政永續性。

公共財務管理變數方面，固定效果模型結果顯示歲入預決算差異比率增加，預算賸餘占所得之比率會降低，代表地方政府可能藉由虛增預算以增加債限，膨脹債務也致使預算賸餘占所得之比率降低，赤字比率擴大，不利於地方財政永續性。

本研究發現臺灣各直轄市及縣(市)政府可能藉由虛增預算以增加債限，以及少數縣市以借入款來掩飾債務，規避公共債務法之債限規定，使得臺灣地方財政持續惡化，影響地方財政永續經營，本研究建議地方政府編列預算時，預算數額應準確估計，以及中央政府應重視地方政府的財務調度是否恰當。財政部在考核地方財政是否健全時，亦應將虛增預算(預決算的差短)、短期借款及借入款等情況納入考核指標。

The increasing debt of Taiwan’s local governments gradually worsened their fiscal condition. Furthermore, poor financial regulation of some local governments delayed the salaries dispatching of civil servants in recent years. Based on the theoretical model of Bohn (2005), this study follows and explores the research methodology of Liu (2014). The data of Taiwan’s 23 counties/cities from 2001 to 2014 are employed to evaluate the fiscal sustainability of Taiwan’s local governments. In the study of relation between public financial management and fiscal condition of local governments, beside the descriptive analysis we further quantify some of explanatory variables about public financial management to study the fiscal sustainability of Taiwan’s local governments. These practical operation variables of Taiwan's local public finance include the shortage between budget and final account of revenue, short-term loan and borrowings.

The unit root test, cointegration test, Panel vector autoregression model and fixed effects model are performed to estimate the impact of debt-to-income ratio per capita on primary surplus-to-income ratio per capita in Taiwan’s local governments. The results of unit root test show debt-to-income ratio per capita do not converges to zero, which means that local governments in Taiwan do not reveal fiscal sustainability. The regression results show the effect of debt-to-income ratio on primary surplus-to-income ratio in Taiwan’s local governments is not significant, which means that long-term debt and short-term debt does not significantly affect the financial sustainability.

The effect of inflated budget ratio on primary surplus-to-income ratio is negative based on the fixed effects model, which means that local governments increase debt limit by inflated budget. The considerable deficit caused by the inflated budget would really harm the financial sustainability of local governments in Taiwan.

This study finds Taiwan’s local governments increase debt limit by inflated budget and some counties use borrowings to avoid the limit regulation of Public Debt Act, which make local public finance of Taiwan deteriorative and disadvantage the fiscal sustainability of Taiwan’s local governments. Therefore, this study suggests that the budget of the local governments should be accurate estimate and that central government should pay attention to the fund dispatching of local government whether it is appropriate. When Ministry of Finance evaluates the fiscal condition of local governments, fiscal performance indicators should also consider the degrees of inflated budget, the condition of short-term loan and the size of borrowings.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機及背景 1
第二節 研究目的 11
第三節 研究架構 11
第二章 文獻回顧 12
第一節 財政永續性國外相關文獻 14
第二節 財政永續性臺灣相關文獻 17
第三節 探討臺灣地方財政惡化相關文獻 18
第三章 理論模型與研究方法 21
第一節 理論模型 21
第二節 追蹤資料研究方法 23
第四章 實證模型 31
第一節 變數定義及資料來源 31
第二節 敘述性統計 36
第三節 實證模型 46
第五章 實證結果分析 49
第一節 單根檢定結果 49
第二節 共整合檢定結果分析 51
第三節 向量自我迴歸結果 53
第四節 追蹤資料迴歸結果 55
第六章 結論與建議 58
第一節 主要結論 58
第二節 研究限制及未來研究建議 60
參考文獻 61
附錄 66

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