臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

農產品價格的高低及波動程度，不僅影響民生消費，更會增加農業生產的不確定性，對農家收入造成衝擊。因此，確保穩定且合理的農產品價格對許多國家而言是非常重要的政策之一。而農產品價格的波動最主要是受到氣候條件的影響，農產品的品質好壞、生長期的淡旺季等，亦會使蔬果價格產生波動。政府部門為了穩定農產品價格，並為使價格之形成能夠更加公開且透明化，與農民團體及果菜販運商共同投資成立臺北農產運銷股份有限公司，並負責經營臺北第一和第二果菜批發市場。然而本應擔負起穩定大臺北地區農產品價格之臺北農產運銷公司，卻在2018年初時爆發休市風波，由於排定過於密集的連續休市時程，導致在休市後發生農產品價格暴跌且產量暴增滯銷的亂象，因而引發許多爭議。
過去文獻大多著重於探討氣候因素或是天然災害如颱風、寒害的衝擊，對於蔬果價格的影響。而果菜批發市場制定連續休市對於蔬果價格之衝擊，國內較少有相關的研究。有鑒於此，本研究透過臺北農產運銷公司2011年休市前後六種蔬菜（高麗菜、大白菜、蘿蔔、玉米、甘藷、菠菜）價格的資料，分析連續休市前後蔬菜價格波動情形，以探討連續休市後是否皆會造成蔬菜價格下跌的情形，主要以合成控制法為實證分析模型，探討2011年春節時連續休市五日與中元節後連續兩日休市對於蔬菜平均批發價格之影響。
實證結果顯示，不論是較長或較短的休市後，開市時的蔬菜價格相對於未休市時的情況，較易有價格降低的情形發生，代表連續休市的確有可能對批發價格造成衝擊，其中又以春節時連續五日休市的影響較為顯著。而在本文所探討的六種蔬菜中，連續休市對於高麗菜批發價格的影響最為明顯，透過合成控制法發現在沒有發生休市的情況下，其平均價格會較發生休市時高，可能是因為葉菜類作物的生長、採收和保存期較短，遇到較長休市時價格所受到的影響較大，使平均價格降低；相對地，根莖類作物如蘿蔔以及甘藷的平均價格則較不易受到連續休市的效果所影響，可能是因其生長、採收和保存期較長所致。最後，經由實證結果，本研究建議臺北農產運銷公司未來在排定休市的時程時，應納入連續休市對於蔬菜價格之影響，降低長天期的連續休市次數，以減少農產品價格之波動。

The price of agricultural products and the degree of price fluctuations not only affect the consumption of people''s wellbeing, but also increase the uncertainty of agricultural production and impact on the farmers'' income. Therefore, ensuring stable and reasonable prices of agricultural products is one of the most important policies for many countries. The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is mainly affected by climatic conditions. The quality of agricultural products, the peak season of the growing season, etc., will also cause fluctuations in the prices of vegetables. To stabilize the price of agricultural products and promote the formation of agricultural product prices to be more open and transparent, the government have jointly invested with farmers'' groups and vegetable traffickers to establish Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Corporation. The company is responsible for the operation of Taipei''s first and second fruit and vegetable wholesale markets. However, the Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Corporation, which should have taken up the price of agricultural products in Taipei, broke out in the early 2018. Due to the excessively tight continuous closed market schedule, the agricultural product price collapsed, and the quantities suddenly increased when the market opened. The chaos of continuous closed market has caused a lot of controversy.
Most of the studies focuses on the impact of climatic factors or natural disasters such as typhoons and cold damage on the price of vegetables. There are few related studies in Taiwan about the impact of continuous closed market on the vegetable prices. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the price fluctuations of six vegetables (cabbage, pekinensis, radish, corn, yam, spinach) before and after the market closures in 2011. In order to explore whether the price of vegetables will fall after continuous market closures, this study mainly uses the synthetic control method to analyze the impact of the 2011 lunar New Year festival and the Ghost Festival on the average wholesale price of vegetables.
The empirical results show that, whether it is after a longer or shorter market closure, the price of vegetables at the opening of the market is relatively easy to have a lower price than without a market closure. It is indeed possible for the price of vegetables to be caused by the continuous closed market. The impact, which is further affected by the five consecutive days of the lunar New Year festival, is more significant. Among the six vegetables discussed in this paper, the continuous closed market has the most obvious impact on the wholesale price of cabbage. Also the study finds that in the absence of closed market, the average price will be higher than when the market is closed. Because the growth, harvesting and storage period of leafy vegetables are shorter, the price is significantly affected by the long-term closures. In contrast, the average price of rhizome crops such as radish and yam is less susceptible to the effect of continuous closures, possibly due to its longer growth, harvesting and storage periods. Finally, based on the empirical results, this study suggests that in the future Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Corporation should include the effect of continuous market closures on the price of vegetables, and reduce the number of consecutive holidays in the long-term period to reduce the fluctuation of agricultural prices.

謝辭 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節、 研究動機 1
第二節、 研究目的 3
第三節、 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節、 臺北農產運銷公司介紹 5
第二節、 影響農產品價格之因素 8
第三節、 使用合成控制法模型之文獻 10
第三章 資料介紹 11
第一節、 臺北農產運銷公司之第一果菜市場每日交易資料介紹 11
第二節、 資料篩選及樣本選取 13
第三節、 變數選取以及變數內容 18
第四節、 敘述統計 19
第四章 實證模型與方法 40
第一節、 普通最小平方法（Ordinary Least Squares Method） 40
第二節、 合成控制法（Synthetic Control Method） 42
第五章 實證結果 46
第一節、 普通最小平方法之估計結果 46
第二節、 合成控制法之估計結果 61
第六章 結論與建議 90
第一節、 結論與建議 90
第二節、 研究限制 91
參考文獻 92

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