臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文旨在探討傳統農業生產者所使用之輪耕方法在面對貿易自由化和現代農業所面臨之糧食作物價格波動與自然災害下，生產者將如何考量不同糧食作物價格水準和氣候災害變化機率以進行動態方式耕地輪作模式。傳統上，在農經領域習慣以數理模型進行產量模擬，農藝領域常以生產相關變數進行產量預測，而本文結合兩者常用之賽局模型與馬可夫過程，進行生產者的策略預測與建議，以期在農業生產中導入決策之研究。一開始先導入賽局混合策略之概念用以建構兩人賽局；接著在同時考量雙方追求自身期望利益相等下，進行動態耕地輪作之決策並以此延伸出多條穩定的動態耕地輪作策略之循環，然後導入馬可夫鍊以開發一個穩定馬可夫過程做為最終決策之依據；最終本文嘗試加入國外競爭者進口糧食作物至國內市場，建構三人賽局並以此延伸國內生產者之決策模式以進行更進一步的研究。

This paper mainly explores the situation that when the traditional agricultural producers faces free trade and modern agriculture’s grain crop price fluctuations and natural climate changes, they will consider a level of pricing for grain crops and a probability of climate changes by developing a dynamic grain crop rotation model. Traditional, the scholar in agriculture economic accustomed to simulate yield by mathematical models, in agronomy, they usually use the variables of production to predict yield. But this paper combine the game model and Markov process that common usage in these two fields for producers’ strategic forecasting and recommendations and add the decision-making of agricultural production. At first, this paper introduces the mixed strategy of game theory to construct a 2-player game. Next, in consideration of the pursuit of the maximization of interests, the decision-making associated with dynamic grain crop rotation which will be extended to a multiple stable dynamic grain crop rotation strategy cycle, then develop a stationary Markov process as the basis for a final decision. Finally, this paper attempts to add foreign competitors to import grain in the domestic market, thus to construct 3-palyer game and extend the decision model for domestic producers for further studies

Table of Contents
Content Page
Acknowledgements I
Chinese Abstract II
Abstract III
Table of Contents IV
List of Tables VI
List of Figures VI
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2. Research Problems and Limitations 2
1.3. Research Structure and Outline 3
CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1. Reviews on Modern Agricultural and Crop Rotation 7
2.2. Reviews on Natural Weather Disasters and Grain Crop Price Fluctuations 8
2.3. Reviews on Game Theory and Markov Process 9
2.4. Reviews on Decision Tree and Decision Analysis 11
CHAPTER III THE MODEL’S CONSTRUCTION 13
3.1. Model Introduction, Construction and 2-Player Game Construction 13
3.2. Decision Tree and Stable Dynamic Grain Crop Rotation Strategy Cycles. 16
3.3. The Markov Process of the Model and the Regular Markov Chain. 19
3.4. An Empirical Example of the Model 25
CHAPTER IV MODEL’S CONSTRUCTION WITH A FOREIGN COMPETITIOR 27
4.1. Model Redefined for 3-Player Game Construction. 27
4.2. Decision Tree, Stable Strategy Cycles and Markov Process. 34
CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS 39
5.1. Conclusions 39
5.2. Future Research 40
REFERENCES 41

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