臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來公共自行車蓬勃發展，越來越多國家重視其發展，而公共自行車發展的主要目的為替公共運輸提供最後一哩的服務，增加公共運輸的可及性，希望可透過此方式增加對公共運輸的使用率。公共自行車與公共運輸或私人運具的關係是值得去探討的，過去文獻多半探討公共自行車作為主要運具時是否可以取代私人運具，但較少討論公共自行車與公共運輸的互補關係，此外在不同旅次目的下，公共自行車與其他運具之互補或替代性也可能會有所差異，因此本研究將通勤與休閒旅次分開進行討論，探討在不同旅次目的下，公共自行車與其他運具間的互補及替代性。
本研究透過問卷的發放來了解台北都會區民眾對於運具選擇的偏好，問卷的設計採用敘述性偏好，並使用多項羅吉特模式與巢式羅吉特模式進行校估，參考過去文獻所使用之變數，進而分析民眾對於運具選擇的偏好。本研究發現通勤旅次下，民眾較不容易在主運具間做轉換，較容易在接駁方式做轉換；休閒旅次下，民眾較容易在主運具間轉換，較不容易在接駁方式中作轉換。模式校估的結果顯示影響民眾運具選擇的因素包括總金額、總時間、降雨及溫度，而個人的社經特性也會影響對於運具的選擇，如性別、年齡與所得。
透過交叉彈性的計算，在通勤時公共自行車與公車及捷運在價格或時間的互補性皆大於替代性，表示存在著較高的互補關係。在休閒時公共自行車與捷運在價格或時間上的互補性大於替代性，但公共自行車與公車無論在價格或時間上僅存在替代性。在政策模擬方面，假設在小雨的情況下提供公共運輸的票價優惠，能增加公共自行車或公共運輸的市占率。在無降雨的情況下，平日提供公車轉乘優惠，假日提供捷運轉乘優惠對於公共運輸市占率提升較有幫助。提供青少年使用公共自行車的優惠，在通勤旅次下可增加公共自行車作為公共運輸接駁的市占率，在休閒旅次下則會增加公共自行車作為主要運具的市占率。

In recent years, more and more countries paid attention to the development of bike-sharing system. The main purpose of bike-sharing system is to provide the last mile service for public transportation and to increase the accessibility of public transportation. The relationship between bike-sharing system, public transport and private vehicle mode is worth exploring. Previous literatures mostly explored whether bike-sharing system could replace private vehicle mode, but less focus on the complementary relationship between bike-sharing and public transportation. Maybe there are different relationship between commute and leisure. This study is explored the complementary and substitution relationship of different purpose of trips.
The questionnaire in this study is conducted by stated preference in order to discover the mode choice of Taipei residents, and using data to modeling the multinomial logit and nested logit model. The results revealed that total cost, total time, rain, temperature, gender, age and income have apparently effect on mode choice. Otherwise, people care about the main mode in commute trips and care about the access mode in leisure trips.
Through the calculation of cross- elasticity, there are complementary relationship between bike-sharing system and public transportation in commute trips. In leisure trips, there are complementary relationship between bike-sharing system and metro, substitution relationship between bike-sharing system and bus. The results of policy simulations revealed that if there are metro price discount when raining help to gain the market share of public transportation. If there are bus price discount on weekdays or metro price discount on holidays when it raining help to gain the market share of bike-sharing system. Offer price discount for young people to use bike-sharing system, in commute trips may gain the market share of bike-sharing system as acess mode of public transportation , in leisure trips may gain the market share of bike-sharing system as main mode.

目錄 i
表目錄 iii
圖目錄 iv
第一章、緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究範圍 3
1.4 研究內容與流程 4
第二章、文獻回顧 6
2.1 公共自行車系統介紹 6
2.1.1 公共自行車系統之演進 6
2.1.2 公共自行車系統之比較 8
2.1.3 台北市公共自行車 9
2.2 公共自行車選擇因素 11
2.3 運具間替代與互補性之衡量 14
2.4 公共自行車之替代與互補性 14
2.5 小結 17
第三章、資料蒐集與研究方法 18
3.1 敘述性偏好方法 18
3.2 個體選擇行為理論 18
3.2.1 多項羅吉特模式(Multinomial Logit, MNL) 19
3.2.2 巢式羅吉特模式(Nested Logit, NL ) 20
第四章、資料蒐集分析 23
4.1 問卷內容設計 23
4.1.1 運具選擇習慣調查 23
4.1.2 運具選擇偏好 24
4.1.3 個人基本資料 31
4.2 調查方法與過程 32
4.3 基本統計分析 32
第五章、模式建構與解釋 34
5.1 模式指定(Model Specification) 34
5.2 多項羅吉特模式校估結果 38
5.2.1 通勤旅次多項羅吉特模式 38
5.2.2 休閒旅次多項羅吉特模式 43
5.3 巢式羅吉特模式校估結果 49
5.3.1 巢式羅吉特架構 49
5.3.2 通勤旅次巢式羅吉特模式 50
5.3.3 休閒旅次巢式羅吉特模式 53
5.4 彈性分析 57
5.4.1 價格彈性 57
5.4.2 時間彈性 59
5.5 政策分析 60
5.5.1 降雨價格優惠政策 60
5.5.2 公共運輸轉乘公共自行車價格優惠政策 65
5.5.3 青少年價格優惠政策 67
第六章、結論與建議 69
6.1 結論 69
6.2 建議 71
參考文獻 72

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