臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來台灣連鎖咖啡店消費人口的穩定成長，提升了連鎖咖啡店的市場規模與消費產值，傳統利潤導向的市場經營方式，使得連鎖咖啡店的競爭更趨激烈，如何訂定正確的選址與經營策略，成為在高度競爭市場中存活的重要關鍵。

傳統的選址問題需要投入大量的人力與時間進行相關資訊的蒐集、訪查與評估，故而在新設營業點時，較少運用複雜的因素進行區位選址的分析與評估。因此能透過較多的因素，從區位選址與營利效應等觀點進行分析，協助投資者獲得更好的利潤，提高決策成功的機率，是極為重要的問題。

本論文的目的，在於為連鎖咖啡店之選址決策，提出能增加成功機率之設點建議。我們依據連鎖咖啡市場雙雄在訂定選址決策的成功經驗，透過相關係數進行人口與經濟活動因素之統計分析，以找出其成功選址之關鍵因素。同時運用資料探勘的分類技術，建構成功選址之分類模型，並經由地理資訊系統提供的圖層資料，對連鎖咖啡市場雙雄之競爭關係進行分析與評估，以提供正確選址及設點之建議。

實作中我們採用台北市出租店面之空間資料，以探討並評估本研究建議模型之實際效益。實驗結果顯示，透過本研究之選址分類模型進行設點類型之預測，有七成以上之達成率，顯示本研究提出之模型能有效增加選址的成功機率，同時經由競爭對手設點空間關係之分析，亦能提供有利選址決策之建議。

The number of customers of coffee shop chains has grown steadily in recent years that cause the market size as well as the total consumption value increase rapidly and continuously. The competition among the chain coffee stores get even worse under the traditional profit oriented management style. In such case, it is crucial to make the correct decisions when selecting the coffee shop locations as well as making operation strategies in opening new coffee shops.

Traditionally, it takes a great amount of time and human resources in collecting relevant information, conducting field visits as well as site evaluations when making coffee shop site selections. One seldom considers complex factors of site evaluation or field analyzing in selecting the location of new coffee shop. Hence, it will be one of the major contributions if one can find a mechanism in analyzing the site selection as well as profit evaluation to help the investors to produce better profit and to improve the chance of success.

The goal of this thesis is to provide recommendations to improve the success rate of chain coffee shop site selection strategy. Based on the coffee market leaders’ success experiences in formulating the site selection strategies, we analyzed the correlation coefficients of the population as well as economy activities in order to identify the key factors in successful site selection strategies. We also used data mining techniques to construct the classification models of successful site selection. In addition, we analyzed and evaluated competition relations between the two leading chain coffee brands using the geographic information systems to obtain appropriate recommendations in new site selections.

The shop rental information of Taipei City was used to explore and to evaluate the models recommended in our mechanism. The experimental results showed that the prediction through the classification models for site selections can achieve 70% of success rate. This indicates our mechanism effectively improve the successful rate of site selections. Moreover, the experimental results also show that the spatial analysis of site selections between the competitors is helpful in providing appropriate site selection strategies.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 問題描述 3
1.3 研究貢獻 4
第二章 文獻回顧與探討 6
2.1 連鎖咖啡店之經營 6
2.2 選址考慮因素 8
2.3 資料探勘 9
2.4 地理資訊系統 10
第三章 選址之討論 11
3.1 系統流程 11
3.2 資料前處理 13
3.2.1 人口資料 14
3.2.2 經濟活動資料 14
3.2.3 空間關係資料 14
3.3 選址關鍵因素選取 15
3.3.1 相關係數 16
3.3.2 購買力指數 17
3.3.3 零售飽和指數 17
3.3.4 人口特性 18
3.3.5 經濟活動 21
3.3.6 空間關係 24
第四章 分類模型與實例探討 46
4.1 選址分類模型建構 46
4.2 實例探討與設點評估 52
4.3 結果分析 55
第五章 結論與未來研究 65
5.1 研究結論 65
5.2 未來研究 67
參考文獻 68

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