臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

營造廠商的良窳為工程專案成功的關鍵。在工程發包時，除了考量投標者承諾的成本與工期外，如何遴選履約風險較低的投標者為承攬廠商，已成為營建業重要的課題。
本研究主要的目的在於提供營建專案業主一個選擇總承包商的改良方法，針對工期與成本兩項選商準則，評估候選營造廠之投標承諾帶給業主的經濟效用，也評估候選營造廠實現投標承諾的可能性風險，並整合分析經濟效用與實現可能性，避免錯誤決策，提升決策品質。
針對營建專案選擇總承包商的決策，本文提出「選商多準則展望模式」，對投標者的「成本折扣」與「工期折扣」二項投標承諾，以廠商提供之標單與佐證資料為基礎，讓業主有效地評估「成功實現」和「失敗實現」兩種結果的可能性與主觀效用，再整合求得整體展望值，作為業主遴選營造總承包商之決策參考。本模式首先以模糊偏好關係評估投標承諾付諸實現「成功」與「失敗」的兩種可能性，再以效用函數量化業主對投標承諾的主觀效用，最後以累積展望理論計算「實現可能性」與「主觀效用」乘積求得候選營造廠的整體展望值。

The contractor is the key factor for successful implementation of a construction project. How to avoid elevated risk of not implementing contracted obligation is an important issue for construction industry.

This paper proposes a “Multi-Criteria Prospect Model” (MCPM) to support a construction contractor selection process. This model is based on bidder’s tender promise and related proof documents. Through this transparent competition model, not only utility but also implementation probability (as provided time/cost discounts related to success and failure implementations) can be effectively evaluated by clients. In the model, implementation probabilities are evaluated using Fuzzy Preference Relations and Predefined Decision Utility curves allow each bid to provide utility to the client. Both probability and utility are integrated by using the Cumulative Prospect Theorem. The overall prospect value for each candidate contractor is provided to support the final selection.

The primary contribution of this study is to propose the clients an enhance method to support a construction contractor selection process in which two criteria, the construction cost and completion time, are taken into account. Both the implementation probabilities and the economic utilities of tenders’ promise time/cost discounts are evaluated in this method. Above evaluation results are integrated to reduce the poor decision making and to improve the decision quality. The MCPM meets the clients’ preference by defining the time/cost decision utility function, and ensures the objectivity of decision process by group evaluation, and provides an easy and efficient quantification tool for user by designing linguistic questionnaire with multiplicative preference relation, and reflects the decision preference of evaluators by using probability weighting function. Such characteristics of the proposed model are benefit to select the most appropriate general contractor from the candidates for the clients to succeed in project implementation.

目 錄
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍與限制 4
1.4 研究內容 5
1.5 研究步驟 6
1.6 論文架構 8
第二章 文獻回顧 10
2.1 營建專案選擇總承包商的方法與決策準則 10
2.2 決策效用及其在工程發包的應用 11
2.3 累積展望理論(Cumulative prospect theory; CPT) 13
2.3.1 數學模型 14
2.3.2 機率權重函數(Probability weighting function; PWF) 16
2.4 一致性偏好關係(Consistent preference relations) 18
2.4.1 乘積偏好關係（Multiplicative preference relations；MPR） 18
2.4.2 模糊偏好關係(Fuzzy Preference Relations；FPR) 19
2.4.3 建立一致性模糊偏好關係 19
第三章 探討實現投標承諾的影響因子及權重 21
3.1 實現投標承諾的影響因子 21
3.1.1 業主評選營造廠商的決策因子探討 21
3.1.2 營造承包商完工績效評估因子探討 22
3.2 影響因子間相對權重的評估 25
3.2.1 定義評估相對權重的語意變數 25
3.2.2 進行專家問卷 26
3.2.3 建構乘積偏好關係 MPR 28
3.2.4 轉換 MPR 為模糊偏好關係 FPR 29
3.2.5 彙整評估群的 FPR 29
3.2.6 正規化彙整的 FPR 29
3.2.7 求出影響因子間相對權重 30
第四章 建構選商多準則展望模式 32
4.1 選商多準則展望模式 32
4.2 投標承諾被實現可能性評估 35
4.3 投標承諾對業主效用評估 41
4.3.1 決定工期及成本效用函數 41
4.3.2 評估工期及成本折扣的效用 44
4.4 候選營造廠展望值評估 44
4.4.1 決定評估團隊之機率權重函數 45
4.4.2 評估候選營造廠整體展望值 49
4.4.3最佳候選營造廠 51
第五章 案例分析與選商模式驗證 52
5.1 案例基本資料概要說明 52
5.2 招標前準備 53
5.2.1 評估影響因子間的相對權重 54
5.2.2 決定機率權重函數 57
5.2.3 決定決策效用函數 59
5.3 候選營造廠評估 62
5.3.1 評估候選營造廠實現投標承諾的可能性 63
5.3.2 評估投標承諾對業主的效用 69
5.3.3 評估候選營造廠整體展望值 71
5.3.4 選定最適合營造廠 73
5.4 相關決策模式比較 76
第六章 結論與建議 78
6.1 結論 78
6.2 建議 79
參考文獻 80
附錄 A-1

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