臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

臺灣10年來約有3,000人於酒駕車禍中喪命，更有逾10萬人因酒駕車禍而導致受傷。過去臺灣針對酒駕再犯者之特性大多透過官方資料以及自我量測報告進行分析，僅觀察是否酒駕再犯或是酒駕再犯次數。在模式設定上面將原先縱斷面的資料當作橫斷面進行探討，忽略時間所帶來的影響，無法考慮駕駛人每次再犯所帶來的變化。目前我國的官方資料中皆有記載酒駕者每次被開單之記錄和時間，便可將時間變化納入討論，本研究引入「存活分析」，找出酒駕再犯者的個人特性以及容易有哪些違規行為，藉此作為抑制酒駕違規改善對象。研究結果發現性別、年齡、先前違規紀錄皆為酒駕再犯者的重要預測因子，並選取駕駛人常有之違規行為組成不同違規組合，計算擁有不同違規組合之駕駛人的酒駕再犯率。

In Taiwan, there are about 3,000 people alcohol-related crash fatalities and more than 100,000 people non-fatal injuries due to drunk driving in the past ten years. According to the previous research, using the official record data and self-reports is the most common way to analyze the characteristic of drunk driving recidivists, only analyzing whether the driver is the DUI recidivist and the times of the drunk driving. When it comes to the model setting, using the original longitudinal data as the cross-sectional data to discuss would ignore the time effect and the variation on either side of the dividing line. At present, the official data of Taiwan has recorded the details about the drunk drivers and their violation time; therefore, this study applied the “Survival analysis” to discuss the time-varying and find out the personal characteristics of drunk driving recidivists as well as the violation of DUI recidivist. It can be as the concerned object of drunk driving. The result of study showed that gender, age and the previous traffic violations were the important predictors of DUI recidivists. And then, the study selected the traffic violations which drivers violated often and turned them into different violation combinations to calculate the recidivism rate of the driver in different violation combinations.

目錄
中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌謝 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究範圍與對象 3
1.4 研究架構與流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 6
2.1 駕駛人酒駕行為研究 6
2.2 台灣酒駕政策歷程 11
2.3 酒駕政策對於事故防制成效的影響 14
2.4 酒駕再犯者特性分析 16
第三章 研究方法 19
3.1 存活分析簡介 19
3.2 存活分析法 21
第四章 資料蒐集與敘述性分析 26
4.1 資料蒐集 26
4.2 酒後駕車敘述性分析 30
第五章 研究結果 41
5.1 研究分析模型選定 41
5.2 酒駕再犯者特性分析結果 48
第六章 結論與建議 55
6.1 結論 55
6.2 建議 56
參考文獻 57

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