臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

航空貨運業因現今社會的消費模式改變成為重要運輸管道之一，消費者與高價值產品對於快速的需求、產品生命週期縮短、電子商務的崛起均為推動航空貨運業潛在因素，第四方物流面對顧客需求不確定與其他第四方物流競爭一同競爭航空公司貨艙空間的情形下，要如何有最適合訂購量決策，避免因無法滿足顧客而產生過多缺貨成本或顧客需求太低時產生的過量成本。本研究提出以報童理論作為基礎架構之模型，以兩家同質性高之第四方物流對於預估訂購量的討論，其中融入賽局理論進行探討，以單期二階段訂購模式並根據上述所提因素並藉由對於顧客需求量預測、競爭對手訂購量預測以及成本控制尋找不同情況裡第四方物流的最適訂購方案。

The air cargo industry has become one of the important transportation channels due to the change of consumption patterns in today's society. The rapid demand for consumers and high-value products, the shortening of product life cycle and the rise of e-commerce are all potential factors in the air cargo industry. Fourth Party Logistics In the face of uncertain customer demand and other fourth-party logistics competition to compete with airline cargo space, how to make the most suitable order quantity decision, avoid excessive cost of out of stock due to inability to satisfy customers or when customer demand is too low Excessive cost. This study proposes a model based on newsboy theory as a model for the discussion of estimated order quantities by two homogeneous fourth-party logistics, which incorporates the theory of the game, and discusses the single-stage two-stage ordering model according to the above. The factors are used to find the optimal ordering plan for the fourth party logistics in different situations by forecasting customer demand, competing order quantity forecasting and cost control.

摘要 ii
目錄 iii
圖目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 5
第2章 文獻探討 7
2.1 航空貨運業市場 7
2.2 報童理論 8
2.3 賽局理論 9
第3章 研究方法 13
3.1 問題描述 13
3.2 背景假設 14
3.3 模型介紹 14
3.4 模型建立 16
第4章 模型分析 41
第5章 結論 55
第6章 文獻參考 56
第7章 附件 61

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