臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

受限於對地下構造的認知不足以及高解析數值模擬需要大量的電腦運算資源，如何提高計算頻率來達到模擬真實地動行為是地震學家必須克服之一大難題。本研究提出三種可行方法來達到寬頻模擬的目的，並期盼能以三種方法重建地震的真實地動特性。本研究分為兩大部分，第一部分首先進行三種寬頻地動模擬方法的理論介紹以及實際運用的分析結果；第二部分則以上述的寬頻模擬技術進行恆春斷層的情境地震模擬。
本研究的第一種方法為“混合式模擬法 (Hybrid Method)”，利用在低頻段( < 1 Hz )已有高度掌握三維波場行為的譜元素法( Spectral-Element Method )以及在高頻段( >1 Hz ) 以一隨機時間序列描述地震波特性的隨機方法(Stochastic Method)，分別計算出高低頻時間序列，最後將兩者結合形成一寬頻時間序列以達到寬頻地動模擬的目的。第二種方法透過對數個地震事件之觀測與模擬頻譜之比值進行統計分析，將此統計得到之比值對模擬結果之頻譜進行修正。結果顯示進行頻譜修正時，必須考慮不同地震的震源參數以及波傳路徑上的差異。第三種方法是以高精確度的網格模型，直接進行高頻數值模擬運算，此方法可有效反映地震波因真實地表地形所產生的散射波高頻訊號。透過三種方法的實作與分析，初步已可克服地震波高頻模擬的限制，達到真實地動模擬的目的。
在第二部分寬頻情境地震模擬的研究中，採用混合式模擬法並設定不同的地震參數，如震源位置、滑移量分佈以及破裂速度等，探討各種可能發生的強地動行為，全面地分析情境地震發生時的影響。相較於以傳統強地動衰減式進行強地動評估，以混合式模擬法進行寬頻強地動模擬可提供以物理為基礎的地動資訊。這些寬頻地震模擬的方法與技術，能應用在未來可能發生大規模地震的活動斷層上，透過情境地震的分析與模擬對未來的災情能事先掌握，以期達到地震防災與減災之目的。

One of the most important issues of the recent development of seismology and earthquake engineering is the capability to predict strong ground motion for future large earthquake based on state-of-the-art knowledge and observations. However, it is very difficult to achieve realistic ground motion response by numerical simulation due to the poor resolution of underground structure and high computational consuming. In this study, we present three approaches to extend the simulating frequency band and to establish the feature of realistic strong ground motion pattern. There are two major parts in this study. First part focuses on the developments and tests of the three approaches to realize broadband ground motion simulation. The three approaches are (1) Hybrid method, (2) Frequency ratio method and (3) High frequency numerical simulation. These three approaches are applied on the 2010 Jiashian (M6.4) and 2009 Nanto (M5.13) earthquakes. In the second part, the hybrid broadband simulation technique is considered to apply on Hengchun scenario earthquake. Results indicate that using hybrid method with characteristic source model approach can provide a physics-based simulation result to predict strong ground motion of large earthquake that could occur in the future. The long term goal of this study will be to give contributions to the earthquake mitigation and seismic hazard assessment.

致謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
圖目 vi
表目 vi
第一章 緒論
1.1研究動機與目的 1
1.2文獻回顧 2
1.3內容簡介 5
第二章 研究方法與原理
2.1 低頻-譜元素法(Spectral element method) 8
2.1.1 波動方程式求解 8
2.1.2 網格模型建立 10
2.2 高頻-隨機方法(Stochastic method) 11
2.2.1 隨機模擬方法原理 11
2.2.2有限源隨機模擬 14
2.2.3 三分量隨機方法模擬 14
2.3混合式模擬方法( Hybrid method ) 15
2.4頻譜比值模擬方法( Spectral ratio simulation method ) 16


第三章 寬頻地震紀錄模擬之實現
3.1 混合式模擬方法-以2010.03.04 00:18甲仙地震( ML 6.4)為例 26
3.1.1 以逆推模型模擬 26
3.1.2 以特徵化模型模擬 27
3.1.3 高低頻部分之計算與模擬參數設定 30
3.1.4 結果與討論 31
3.2 頻率比值法-以2009.11.5 09:3南投地震( ML 5.13 )為例 65
3.2.1 資料選取與處理 65
3.2.2 結果討論與分析 66
3.3 高頻數值模擬-以2010.03.04 00:18甲仙地震( ML 6.4)為例 79
3.3.1 模型測試 79
3.3.2 結果與討論 82
3.4三種寬頻模擬技術之比較 91
第四章 恆春斷層之未來事件模擬
4.1 區域地質概況 92
4.2 恆春斷層參數之假設 93
4.3 結果討論與分析討論 95
第五章 結論 126
參考文獻 127

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