臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

從第一個航運指數創設開始，到目前為止,不僅是海上運輸貿易模式，航運指數的發展也都有很大的變化。於過去幾年, 航運市場非常不穩定，未來幾年或將發生重大變化，又將再次影響航運指數及其計算方法。

本研究旨在探討海運貿易量在過去幾年的增長是否對波羅地海指數的船舶類型變化及其權重變動造成之影響。除此之外，波羅地海河谷極限型船指數是為了顯示該航線的重要性，以及波羅地海交易所最終採用如何計算。本研究將採用該指數隨著海運貿易量增長變化的匹配方法，文獻主要來自波羅地海交易所報告(The Baltic Exchange’s reports)和克拉克森報告(Clarksons’ reports)。本研究貢獻主要係指出貨物量對指數的影響，並為建構新指數跨出第一步。

本文研究顯示，指數變動的主要原因是海運貿易量增長對現有運輸能力的壓力，此種壓力可透過船隊擴大船舶噸位增長或這兩者的組合來緩解。此外，BVI指數顯示,每條航線的重要性，以及根據僅從巴西出口的貨物量如何分配個航線的權重。最後，本研究預測，淡水河谷極限型船舶(Valemax)的出現,將導致海岬型船(Capesize)市場C3航線的權重和C14航線的權重下降，而C5航線的權重可能會增加。因此，由於多餘噸位的投入，C5航線的運費亦或將大幅下降。

From the creation of the first shipping index, the BFI, until now there have been many changes not only in the seaborne trade patterns but also in the evolution of the shipping indices. The last years’ shipping market is highly unstable and major changes are about to happen in the coming years that will surely affect once again the indices and their calculation methods.

This study aims to show if the growth of the seaborne trade volume throughout the years contributed to the Baltic indices’ vessel capacity changes and its’ weightings changes. Beside this, the BVI (Baltic Valemax Index) index is constructed in an effort to show the importance of that index’s routes, as well as how it might be calculated from the Baltic Exchange if it is finally adopted. The matching approach of the index changes with the growth of the seaborne trade volume will be employed in this study, with information obtained mainly from the Baltic Exchange’s reports as well as Clarksons’ reports. It is expected that this study will reveal the contribution that the cargo volumes have on the indices and further make the first step in the construction of a new index.

This research reveals that the main cause of the indices’ changes is the pressure that the seaborne trade volume growth puts on the existing transportation capacity and this pressure can be eased either through a tonnage fleet expansion, through a vessel capacity growth or the combination of these two. Furthermore, the BVI index reveals the importance of each route and how the weighting factors should be distributed according to the cargo volumes that are exported solely from Brazil. Last, this research forecasts that the advent of the new Valemax vessels will cause C3 route's weighting and C14 route’s weighting to drop a lot and C5 route's weighting might increase by taking their share. As a consequence, the freight rates for C5 route might drop significantly due to the influx of superfluous tonnage in the Capesize market.

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research background and motivation 1
1.1.1 Types of bulk carriers 1
1.1.2 The Baltic Exchange 2
1.1.3 Motivation 3
1.2 Research questions and purpose 4
1.2.1 Research Questions 4
1.2.2 Research Purpose 4
1.2.3 Research limitations 4
1.3 Research methodology and context 5
1.3.1 Thesis context 5
1.3.2 Research methodology 5
1.4 Research framework and flow chart 8

Chapter 2 Literature Review 9

Chapter 3 Drybulk Shipping Market 14
3.1 Dry cargo growth and fleet growth 14
3.2 Orderbook and demolition 16
3.3 Fleet age 17
3.4 Comparison of daily earnings and costs 18

Chapter 4 The Changes of the Baltic Dry Indices 19
4.1 Indices’ production process 19
4.1.1 About the Baltic Exchange 19
4.1.2 The Baltic panelists 19
4.1.3 Index production process 20
4.1.4 Index revision process 22
4.2 Baltic indices’ ship types, history and timetable 23
4.3 BDI history and changes 25
4.4 The changes of Baltic Capesize Index 26
4.4.1 BCI’s history and changes 26
4.4.2 Route changes 28
4.4.3 Comments and analysis 31
4.5 The changes of Baltic Panamax Index 39
4.5.1 BPI’s history and changes 39
4.5.2 Route changes 40
4.5.3 Comments and analysis 43
4.6 The changes from BHI to BSI index 46
4.6.1 BHI’s history and changes (The Baltic HandySize Index) 46
4.6.2 BHMI’s history and changes (The Baltic HandyMax Index) 46
4.6.3 BSI’ history and changes (The Baltic Supramax Index) 48
4.6.4 Summary of the route changes 51
4.6.5 Comments and analysis 52
4.7 BHSI’s history and changes (The Baltic HandySize Index) 54
4.8 Calculations example for the date 2016/11/17 55

Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 57
5.1 Conclusions 57
5.2 Suggestions for a new sub-index 58

References 63
Appendix 65

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3. Clarksons Research (2017a), Seaborne Trade Monitor, 4(1).
4. Clarksons Research (2017b), Dry Bulk Trade Outlook, 23(2).
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13. The Baltic Exchange (2014), Baltic Exchange Shipping Indices and Revision Process, London: The Baltic Exchange.
14. The Baltic Exchange (2015), Manual for Panelists, London: The Baltic Exchange.
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18. United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, March 2017. Grain: World Markets and Trade, Washington.
19. https://www.balticexchange.com/about-us/history/, Retrieved on March 27, 2017.
20. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/rio-tinto-sells-australia-coal-unit-to-yancoal-for-2-45-billion, Retrieved on March 27, 2017.
21. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/mitsubishi-said-to-hire-rothschild-to-sell-australian-mine-stake, Retrieved on March 27, 2017.
22. http://www.vale.com/EN/business/logistics/shipping/Pages/default.aspx, Retrieved on March 28, 2017.