臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

台中港防風林區火災特點，大多集中於東北季風開始之9月至翌年2月份，此段期間林區降水量低，致林區內地表枯落物乾燥，因而林區起火機率高。本研究基於每日氣象資料（氣溫、降水量、空氣相對濕度、風速），按照加拿大林火天氣指數的數值計算方法，將台中港1991～2015 年氣象資料和森林火災數據，分析林火天氣指標與林火的相關性。
結果顯示，使用目標區長達25年氣象值，成功運算加拿大7種指標值，並發現林火嚴重率(DSR)從1990 年開始是持續增加中(DSR=10.48），但至近10年來卻反而降低（DSR=1.54）；另關係林區地表細小燃料FFMC，發現台中港防風林區地表引燃難易程度或引燃機率從1990-1995年(FFMC=78.76），至2010-2015年是呈現降低傾向（FFMC=74.76）現象。

Most of the fires in the windbreak areas of Taichung Harbor were concentrated in the northeast monsoon beginning from September to February of the following year. During this period, the precipitation in the forest area was low, and the litter in the forest area was dry. In this paper, based on the daily metrological data (temperature, preeipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed), and the Canadian forest fire weather index system was introduced, and the meteorological data and forest fire data from 1991 to 2015 in Taichung Harbor were used to study the correlation between forest fire index and forest fire.
The results showed that the DSR continued to increase from the beginning of 1990 (DSR = 10.48), but in the past 10 years has shown a lower value(DSR = 1.54), and found that the surface ignition susceptibility or ignition probability of windbreak forest area in Taichung Harbor is increasing continuously from 1990 to 1995 (FFMC=78.76）, but is decreasing from 2010 to 2015（FFMC=74.76）.

第 1 章 緒論 7
1-1 研究動機 7
1-2 研究方法 8
1-3 研究流程 9
第 2 章 文獻回顧 11
2.1 林火氣象因子 11
2.2 林區燃料 15
2.3 林火行為 20
2.4 加拿大FWI系統 22
2.5 加拿大FBP系統 30
第 3 章 材料及方法 32
3.1 研究區域氣象狀況 32
3-2 研究區林木狀況 36
3-3 林火紀錄 39
3-4 林火氣象資料來源 44
3-5 氣象資料處理方法 45
第 4 章 結果與討論 46
4.1 研究區燃料含水率指標 46
4.2 研究區林火行為指標 52
4.3 研究區林火氣象危險指數 56
4.4 研究區林火嚴重指數 58
第5章 結論與建議 60
5-1 結論 60
5-2 建議 64
參考文獻 65
附 錄 72
附錄1 Fire Weather Index(FWI)系統方程組及運算 72
附錄2 梧棲氣象站2011年至2015年每日氣象資料 78


圖 目 錄

圖1-1 本研究流程圖 10
圖2-1 臺中港防風林區由風速慣性力所主導火燒現象 12
圖2-2 臺中港防風林區中午時分火燒 14
圖2-3 燃料為火三要素之一亦是林火環境三組成之一 16
圖2-4 臺中港防風林區草本型地表火燒情況 17
圖2-5 臺中港防風林區草本燃料型火燒一景及熱影像分析 18
圖2-6 臺中港防風林區不同植群燃料型態會導致不同的林火行為 19
圖2-7 臺中港防風林區灌木型火燒強弱受地表木麻黃枯落層厚度之重要影響 20
圖2-8 加拿大林火氣象指數(FWI)系統結構 22
圖2-9 燃料濕度碼之3個指數 23
圖2-10 臺中港防風林區草本燃料型類似橢圓狀火燒面積及熱影像分析(盧守謙，2011b) 25
圖2-11 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區在FWI=9火燒情況 26
圖2-12 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區在FWI=15火燒情況 26
圖2-13 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區在FWI=15火燒情況 27
圖2-14 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區在FWI=17火燒情況 27
圖2-15 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區FWI=20火燒情況 28
圖2-16 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區FWI=24火燒情況 28
圖2-17 加拿大亞伯達省Jack松樹林區FWI=34火燒情況 29
圖3-1 臺中港防風林區位置圖 33
圖3-2 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年期間月平均溫度(T)、月平均相對濕度(RH)、月平均雨量(R)與月平均風速(W)值(mean ± S.E.) (資料來源：交通部中央氣象局梧棲氣象站，量測點位於地面高度32 m) 34
圖3-3 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年期間日平均溫度(T)與日平均相對濕度(RH)關係（n=9131, R2=0.029，p<0.001）(本研究) 35
圖3-4 臺中港防風林區2017年衛星圖 (資料來源：Goggle Map) 37
圖3-5 臺中港防風林區林下優勢種類(a)馬纓丹(灌木型)、(b)大黍與(c)咸豐草(草本型)與(d)無地被型(photo date: 2010年5月2日) (盧守謙等，2011a) 38
圖3-6 臺中港防風林區無地被燃料型火燒情形 39
圖3-7 臺中港防風林區綜合型2000年10月11日林火事件 40
圖3-8 臺中港防風林區1984至2015年期間月林火面積與件數(n=41) (本研究) 41
圖3-9 臺中港防風林區草本型2000年1月3日林火事件 42
圖3-10 臺中港防風林區2003年9月24日林火較大事件 43
圖4-1 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年細小燃料含水率指數值(FFMC)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 47
圖4-2 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年期間年度平均FFMC趨勢圖 48
圖4-3 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年腐殖層燃料含水率指數(DMC)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 49
圖4-4 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年乾旱指數(DC)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 51
圖4-5 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年初始林火擴展速率指數(ISI)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 53
圖4-5 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年每日初始林火擴展速率指數(ISI)與每日風速多項式關係結構 (n=9131, R2=0.74, p<0.001) 54
圖4-6 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年乾旱累積指數(BUI)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 55
圖4-7 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年林火氣象危險指數(FWI)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 56
圖 4-8 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年期間年度平均FWI趨勢圖 57
圖4-9 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年期間每日林火嚴重率(DSR)；橫向實線為平均值 (n=9131) 58
圖4-10 臺中港防風林區1991至2015年期間年度平均每日林火嚴重率(DSR)趨勢圖 59

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