臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

最近幾年觀光產業蓬勃發展且為無煙囪工業，不僅能增加外匯盈餘，額外也能增進工作機會，觀光人數愈多、旅客停留時間愈長，其觀光飯店營收增加間接導致觀光飯店股價成長，藉此以新南向觀光政策實施時間點作為比較。因新南向政策的實施，我國東南亞地區觀光人數增加。
本研究目的為探討在新南向政策下對觀光飯店股價的影響，根據各項觀光與飯店變數透過實證分析，以了解在新南向觀光政策是否有對觀光飯店股價影響。當中由於外國旅客平均停留夜數開始期間為2008年，故選用台灣2008年至2017年這段時間的月資料，最後以新南向觀光政策做為虛擬變數。實證台灣七間飯店其模型變數間對於觀光飯店股價之長、短期影響，以Pesaran（2001）的bounds test，探究此模型間之長期均衡關係；由於先前測試模型之各項單根檢驗中，發現各變數之整合齊次不盡相同，故採用克服模型變數之整合齊次不相同之ARDL方法所得結果。
ARDL的研究結果顯示，國賓、晶華和老爺知本等飯店的股價和模型變數不存在有長期均衡關係，說明此三間飯店股價之變動無法用模型變數來判定，其隱含著觀光飯店股價的波動，並非完全受模型變數影響。另依據ARDL實證結果，來解釋觀光旅館業股價與變數間的關聯性，發現新南向政策對觀光飯店股價有負向影響但不顯著，也可能是因為新南向政策的實施才剛過1年多，還無法確切了解對未來的變動。

In recent years, the tourism industry has flourished and is a chimney-free industry. It can not only increase foreign exchange earnings, but also increase job opportunities. The more visitors there are and the longer the visitors stay, the higher the tourism revenue of tourist hotels will indirectly lead the stock prices of tourist hotels to grow. Compared time with the new southbound tourism policy and past. Due to the implementation of the new southbound policy, the number of tourists in Southeast Asia has increased.
The purpose of this study was to explore the new southbound policy impact on the stock prices of tourist hotels, and to empirically analyze the variables of tourism and hotels. To realize if there was any impact on tourism hotel stock prices in the new tourism policy. Since the average number of overnight stays for foreign travelers started in 2008, the monthly data from the period from 2008 to 2017 in Taiwan is used. Finally, the new south boundary policy is used as a dummy variable. Based on the empirical results of the autoregressive distributional lag model and explain long-term and short-term between the stock price and the variables of the tourist hotel industry. By the bounds test of Pesaran (2001), we use it to find the long-term equilibrium relationship between the models. Because of the previous unit root test, the integration of the variables is not the same. In order to overcome this problem, we use ARDL method which could use different integration of the variables.
The results of ARDL indicate that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the hotel stock price and model variables of Ambassador, Regent, and Royal chihpen doesn’t exist long-term relationship. The change in the stock price of the three hotels cannot be judged by the model variables, which implies the fluctuation of the stock price of the tourist hotel, which is not completely affected by the model variables. According to the empirical results of ARDL, it explains the correlation between the stock price and the variables of the tourism hotel industry. It is found that the new southward policy has a negative impact on the stock price of the tourist hotel but it is not significant. Because the implementation of the new southbound policy has just passed one year. It is not yet possible to know exactly what is going to change in the future.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機及背景 1
第二節 研究目的及限制 7
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 國內文獻 8
第二節 國外文獻 9
第三章 研究方法 12
第一節 變數說明 12
第二節 單根檢定 13
第三節 自我迴歸分布滯後模型 14
第四章 實證結果與分析 17
第一節 敘述性統計 17
第二節 單根檢定 19
第三節 自我迴歸分布滯後模型 22
第五章 結論與建議 32
第一節 結論 32
第二節 建議 33
參考文獻 34

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