臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

道路交通安全事故在世界各國皆造成莫大傷害與損失，全世界每年約超過一百萬人死於交通事故，且約有一千萬人於交通事故中受傷或死亡，而當中又以開發中國家之事故比率最高。根據美國國道交通安全管理局(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration，簡稱NHTSA)一項初步評估顯示，美國2006年因為酒醉駕駛而導致的死亡人數則上升至14年以來的新高。
Ruthm(1996)與Wilkinson(1987)指出，交通事故死亡是美國所有年齡層的民眾的意外死亡的主要原因。Phelp(1988)發現，1980年代美國因嚴重的車禍事故奪走了五千一百多條人命，而這些車禍事件幾乎有一半以上是由飲酒所造成的。以上現象正顯示酒後駕車的嚴重性與其應探討的必要性。
過去酒後駕車的相關研究，資料的種類為橫斷面資料（cross-section）、時間序列資料（time series）或追蹤資料（panel data）。這些資料傳統的計量經濟研究估計方法有二：第一為普通最小平方法（Ordinary Least Square，OLS）；第二種為最小絕對離差法（Least absolute deviation，LAD），其共同的特色為將資料作全面性的探討，而無法就其致死率高低依各分位數進行討論，因此本文乃應用分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)模型，研究美國各郡2005年間酒後駕車致死率和各項變數之間的相關性。
由本文實證結果可以發現，要有效降低酒後駕車致死率，應該因地制宜，也就是針對不同地區的狀況採取不同的政策措施，在低分量地區，所應採取的方式應為有效減少酗酒者，因此應加強戒酒教育、酒後駕車危害宣導等；在中以及中高分量地區，應採取研擬較嚴格的防治酒駕法令、加強警察臨檢等；在高分量區，則應從小培養守法觀念、法令宣導等方面著手。

The traffic accident all causes the greatest damage and the loss of the world. There are approximate million people to die and about 10 million people to be injured every year of the traffic accident of the world, but middle develops countries have the highest ratio of accident. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration a preliminary appraisal shows that number of death of drunk driving is highest for 14 years of the United States., 2006.
Ruthm(1996) and Wilkinson(1987) indicate that the main reason of all age’s populace is the traffic accident fatality on the United States. Phelp(1988) found that there are 5,100 people death for the serious traffic accident in 1980’s of the United States. Above show drunk driving is serious and necessary of discussion.
In the past, the research about drunk driving, the kinds of data are cross-section、time series and panel data. The tradition econometrics data have two estimate methods：First is the Ordinary Least Square; second is the Least Absolute Deviation. The two way’s common characteristic is comprehensive discussion. Therefore the study draw on Quantile Regression and that is analysis of drunk driving of the United States.
By the research, we can find that in different rats of fatality must be to take the different policy measure to improve the fatality of drunk driving. Not like other research only provide the concise suggestion.

美國酒駕成因分析

目次
第一章 緒論.............................................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的....................................................................2
第二節 研究架構................................................................................4
第二章 文獻回顧.....................................................................5
第三章 研究方法與模型.......................................................15
第一節 研究流程..............................................................................16
第二節 OLS與QR模型的差異.........................................................17
第三節 概述複迴歸模......................................................................18
第四節 概述QR模.............................................................................20
第四章 研究結果與分析................................................................28
第一節 資料選擇與說明..................................................................28
第二節 資料處理..............................................................................31
第三節 實證分析..............................................................................34
第五章 結論與建議...............................................................42
第一節 結論......................................................................................42
第二節 研究發現與建議..................................................................45

參考文獻..................................................................................................48

英文部份
Becker, G. S., “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach”, Journal of Political Economy,76(2), 1968, pp. 169-217
Card, D. and A.B. Krueger, “Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania”, American Economic Review, 1994, 772-793.
Chaloupka, F.J., H. Saffer and M. Grossman, ”Alcohol control policies and motor vehicle fatalities”, Journal of Legal Studies , 1993, 161-186.
Chung-Ming Kuan,”An introduction to quantile regression”, Academia Sinica
Cook, P.J. and M.J. Moore, ”Taxation of alcoholic beverages, in: M. Hilton and G. Bloss, eds.”, Economics and the prevention of alcohol-related problems (US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, MD) 1993, 33-58.
Cook, P.J. and M.J. Moore, “Drinking and schooling”, Journal of Health Economics , 1993,411-429.
Cook, P.J. and G. Tanchen, “The effect of liquor taxes on heavy drinking”, Bell Journal of Economics , 1983, 379-390.
Cook, P.J. and G. Tauchen, “The effect of minimum drinking age legislation on youthful auto fatalities”, Journal of Legal Studies , 1984,169-190.
Du Mouchel, W., A.F. Williams and P. Zador, “Raising the alcohol purchase age: Its effects on fatal motor vehicle crashes in twenty-six states”, Journal of Legal Studies , 1987, 249-266.
Evans, W.N. and J.D. Graham, “Traffic safety and the business cycle”, Alcohol Drugs and Driving, 1988, 31-38,
Evans, W.N., D. Neville and J.D. Graham, ”General deterrence of drunk driving: Evaluation ofrecent American Policies”, Risk Analysis, 1991,279-289.
Grossman, M., J.L. Sindelar, J. Mullahy and R. Anderson, “Alcohol and cigarette taxes”, Journal of Economic Perspectives,1993, 211-222.
Gruber, J., ”The incidence of mandated maternity benefits”, American Economic Review,1994,622- 641.
John Mullahy and Jody L. Sindelar, 1994,“Do drinkers know when to say when？ An empirical analysis of drunk driving.”, Economic Inquiry, pp.384-394
Kenkel, D.S., “Drinking, driving, and deterrence: The effectiveness and social costs of alternative policies”, Journal of Law and Economics, 1993, 877-913.
Kenkel, D.S., “Prohibition versus taxation: Reconsidering the legal drinking age”, Contemporary Policy Issues, 1993, 48-57.
Koenker R, Bassett G. 1978. Regression quantiles. Econometrica ,1987, 33–50
Leung, S.F. and C.E. Phelps, “My kingdom for a drink.,.?”, A review of estimates of the price sensitivity of demand for alcoholic beverages, in: M. Hilton and G. Bloss, eds., Economics and the prevention of alcohol-related problems (US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville,MD)1993, 1-32.
Manning, W.G., E.B. Keeler, J.P. Newhouse, E.M. Sloss and J. Wasserman, “The taxes of sin: Do smokers and drinkers pay their way?”, Journal of the American Medical Association, 1989, 1604-1609.
Mercer GW. “The Relationships among Driving While Impaired Charges, Police Drinking-Driving Roadcheck Activity, Media Coverage and Alcohol-Related Casualty Traffic Accidents.” Accident Analysis and Prevention ,1985, 467–74.
Mullahy, J. and J.L. Sindelar, “Alcoholism, work, and income”, Journal of Labor Economics ,1993, 494-520.
Mullahy, J. and J.L. Sindelar, “Effects of minimum drinking age laws on alcohol use, related behaviors, and traffic crash involvement among American youth: 1976-1987”, Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 1995, 478-491,
Murry Jp., Jr., Antonie Stam and John L. Lastovicka, “Evaluating an Anti-Drinking and Driving Advertising Campaign with a Sample Survey and Time Series Intervention Analysis ”, Journal of the American Statistical Association,1993, 50-56
Phelps, C. E.,“Risk and Perceived Risk of Drunk Driving among Young Drivers”, Journal ofPolicy Analysis and Management, 6(4), 1987, pp. 708-714.
Ruhm, C.J., “Economic conditions and alcohol problems”, Journal of Health Economics, 1995,583-603.
Saffer, H. and F. Chaloupka, “Breath testing and highway fatality rates”, Applied Economics, 1989, 901-912.
Saffer, H, and M. Grossman, “Drinking age laws and highway mortality rates: Cause and effect”, Economic Inquiry,1987, 403-417.
Saffer, H. and M. Grossman, “Beer taxes, the legal drinking age, and youth motor vehicle fatalities”, Journal of Legal Studies,1987, 351-374.
Shu-Ling Tsai and Chung-Ming Kuan, “A Quantile Regression Analysis on Family Income Determination with Mating Effects”, Academia Sinica
Sloan, F.A. and P.B. Githens, “Drinking, driving, and the price of automobile insurance”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 1994, 33-58.
Sloan, F.A., B.A. Reilly and C.M. Schenzler, “Tort liability versus other approaches for deterring careless driving”, International Review of Law and Economics, 1994, 53-71.
Sloan, F.A., B.A. Reilly and C.M. Schenzler, “The effects of tort liability and insurance on heavy drinking and drinking and driving”, Journal of Law and Economics,1995, 49-78.
Yanovitsky, I. & Bennett, c., “Media attention, institutional response, and health behavior change”, Communication Research, 1999, 429-453
Young, Douglas J. and Thomas W. Likens. “Alcohol regulation and auto fatalities”. International Review of Law and Economics. , 2000,107-126.
Zollo, Peter. “Talking to teens”. American Demographics, 1995, 22-39

中文部份
林妙芬，"降低酒醉駕車肇事之政策探討：台灣之實証研究"，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文，民國八十年。
林國禎，「酒醉駕駛問題現況分析與執法策略之研究—以台北市為例」，中央警察大學碩士論文，1995年6月。
張新力、王國川、吳宗修、葉純志、黃歆嵐，「實施酒後駕車道安講習對道路交通安全之改善成效評估—以台北市為例」，第七屆運輸安全研討會論文集，民國八十九年十一月七日。
謝益銘，「提昇酒後駕車執法品質之研究」，中央警察大學碩士論文，1998年6月。
鍾志明，「酒醉駕車與交通安全」，中央警察大學大學部專題研究，1987年6月。