臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在亞洲金融風暴的打擊下，東亞各國十多年的經濟榮景化為泡沫，這些國家是如何重建經濟繁榮再現? 本文以東協五國(印尼、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國)為對象，探討影響東協五國經濟成長的之顯著因素。分別透過總體經濟、產業結構、人力資本及政府治理等不同構面，分析其對於經濟成長之影響。本研究以1999年Q1到2012年Q4的季資料做為基礎，運用Eviews 軟體，佐以單根檢定、共整合、Granger因果關係檢定、迴歸分析等方法，更能妥適提供東南亞經濟成長內涵更深入的了解。實證結果發現，透過四個構面的解釋變數，在「總體經濟面」上，以消費者物價指數對經濟成長最具影響性；在「產業結構面」上，以服務業生產力對經濟成長最具影響性；在「人力資本面」上，人口撫養比對經濟成長的影響最為強烈，各國皆有顯著性的影響；在「政府治理構面」上，以政府負債對經濟成長的影響，較有顯著性的影響。

The purpose of this research is to explore the factors influencing economic growth among ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) in Southeast Asia, especially the situation of Economic recovery after the Asian financial crisis. And we try to find the driving factors which caused economic growth. The quarterly data are collected from the Datastream, spanning from 1999 Q1 to 2012 Q4. Through Eviews, the methods are using by ADF unit root tests 、Johansen cointegration test 、the Granger causality test and Regression Analysis. Evidences show that consumer price index caused the economic growth strongest in the macroeconomic aspect、services productivity caused the economic growth strongest in the industrial structure aspect、demographic dependency ratio is highly related to the economic growth in the human capital aspect、government debt caused the economic growth stronger in the government aspect.

謝辭 I
中文摘要 II
Abstract III
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 5
第三節 研究架構 6
第二章 東協概況與文獻回顧 7
第一節 東協五國經濟概況 7
第二節 經濟成長相關文獻 11
第三章 研究方法與模型設定 15
第一節 研究方法 16
第二節 實證模型設定 21
第四章 實證結果與分析 24
第一節 研究資料說明與時間趨勢圖 24
第二節 ADF 單根檢定 28
第三節 Johansen 共整合檢定 29
第四節 Granger 因果關係檢定 30
第五節 迴歸分析 32
第五章 結論與建議 38
第一節 研究結論 38
第二節 未來研究建議 40
參考文獻 41

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