臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

股利是否具有資訊內涵，即股利變動是否可預測公司未來營運績效之變動，在國內外文獻中一直未有定論。另一方面，過去研究曾指出，投資人會因不理性之樂觀情緒而高估公司未來之營運績效，使股價偏離其合理價位。並且，經理人此時可能會迎合投資人之樂觀預期而提高股利之發放。因此本文認為，若股利具有資訊內涵的話，在投資人情緒高亢以外之時期以及股價對情緒較不敏感的公司類型，應尤為明顯。為檢測此說是否為真，本文採用Pooled橫斷面迴歸及Fama-MacBeth橫斷面迴歸之研究方法進行實證分析。
本文之初步實證結果顯示，我國企業之股利變動不具有資訊內涵。然而，在控制投資人情緒後，如本文所預期地，股利變動卻變得具有資訊內涵。然而此現象僅限於股利減發之情形，且投資人情緒較樂觀時會削弱股利減發之資訊內涵，甚至使股利對未來營運績效之預測能力不復存在。最後當控制情緒敏感度之公司特徵時，本文發現，對情緒較不敏感的公司而言，其股利減少似乎具有資訊內涵。反之，對情緒較敏感的公司則不存在此現象。故本文之實證發現，可望對未有定論之國內外文獻，提供新的洞見，而有助於弭平爭議。

Whether dividends of companies have information contents, that is, whether dividend change can predict the change of future operating performance, is inconclusive in both domestic and foreign literature. On the other hand, prior studies have pointed out that investors will overestimate the company's future operating performance due to irrational optimism, so that the stock price may deviate from its reasonable level. Moreover, the manager could then cater to investors’ optimistic expectations and distribute more dividends. Therefore, this paper argues that if dividends have information contents, then it should be particularly obvious in the periods other than the high-sentiment period and among the firms whose stock prices are less sensitive to investor sentiment. In order to examine the validity of this argument, this paper employs both the pooled and the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions in conducting the empirical tests.
The preliminary empirical results show that the dividend changes of Taiwanese firms do not bear information contents. However, after controlling for investor sentiment, as expected, it reveals that dividend changes do possess information contents. But it occurs only in the case of dividend reduction and it is weakened when investor sentiment is higher. Finally, when the firm characteristics of stock price sensitivity to sentiment is controlled for, the results show that dividend reduction seems to have information contents among the less-sentiment-sensitive firms. Therefore, the empirical findings of this paper provide new insights for the inconclusive literature and help to resolve the dispute.

謝　詞 I
中文摘要 II
英文摘要 III
目　錄 IV
表　次 VI
第一章 緒　論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 股利政策之相關理論 4
第二節 股利預測未來營運績效之相關文獻 5
第三節 投資人情緒相關文獻 8
第三章 研究方法 12
第一節 資料來源及樣本選取 12
第二節 研究假說 12
第三節 變數定義 13
第四節 研究模型 16
第四章 實證結果與分析 19
第一節 樣本敘述統計分析 19
第二節 共線性及相關係數分析 19
第三節 股利資訊內涵假說之驗證 21
第五章 結論與建議 36
第一節 研究結論 36
第二節 研究限制 37
第三節 研究建議 37
參考文獻 39
著作權聲明 42

一、中文參考文獻
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林于湘(2015)。應計品質，股利變動和未來經營績效的關係:以台灣公司為例(未出版之碩士論文)。國立中正大學財務金融學系，嘉義縣。
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周賓凰、張宇志、林美珍(2007)。投資人情緒與股票報酬互動關係。證券市場發展季刊，19(2)，153-190。
侯玟伶(2009)。投資人情緒與公司股利政策(未出版之碩士論文)。國立東華大學公司理財碩士學位學程，花蓮縣。
陳士韋(2009)。探討股利宣告之超額報酬受投資人情緒影響之研究(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學財務金融系，台北市。
張舜鑫(2002)。現金股利變動與盈餘關係之探討(未出版之碩士論文)。國立政治大學財務管理學系，台北市。
游清芳(2009)。股利資訊內涵與未來獲利關聯性之研究(未出版之博士論文)。國立雲林科技大學企業管理學系，雲林縣。
簡名志(2004)。從公司股利政策預測未來盈餘及成長機會(未出版之碩士論文)。國立中山大學財務管理學系，高雄市。
蘇麗雯(2010)。投資人情緒與台灣上市公司股利發放因素(未出版之碩士論文)。國立彰化師範大學商業教育學系，彰化市。

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