臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在環保意識高漲的今日，政府與企業都鼓勵消費者使用綠色產品，然而從許多問卷式的研究中發現，消費者雖然具有環保意識也知道購買對環境有益商品的重要性，但有研究指出消費者的購買意願與實際購買行動存在落差(value action gap)。這會使銷售綠色商品的零售商不知向上游供應商採購多少數量的綠色商品，如果進貨太多無法順利售出，會產生存貨成本；如果進貨不足，會產生缺貨成本。因此，零售商會受到消費者需求不確定性的影響。

為了解決需求不確定性的現象，本研究提出具有彈性的採購合約機制，並以實質選擇權之二項樹評價模型當作分析的工具。實質選擇權之決策彈性的特性，可以分析不確定情況下之綠色採購合約價值。本研究將原本的二項樹評價模型，去除時間變化很小的假設條件後，求算出幾個重要的參數值，進而求出彈性合約的價格。最後，以數值範例展示模型的計算過程，並針對銷售量的標準差、固定合約數量、獲利率與季節性進行敏感性分析，以探討彈性合約價格與固定合約搭配彈性合約之利潤期望值差之變化趨勢。

從數值範例的結果發現，當標準差增加，代表市場的不確定性增加，彈性合約的價格也隨之上升，固定合約與彈性合約的利潤期望值差也增加。當固定合約數量增加，也就是彈性合約數量減少時，彈性合約價格下降，而利潤期望值差也會下降。當獲利率增加時，彈性合約價格會上升，而固定合約與彈性合約利潤期望值差也會增加。

With the increasing of environmental awareness, governments and enterprises all encourage people to use green products. However, according to the results of a survey-based research, majority of the consumers realize the importance of environmental protection and they know to buy eco-friendly products as well. But some studies indicate that there exists a value action gap between purchase intention and real buying behavior. Consequently, retailers do not know how many green products they should buy from the suppliers. Ordering too much stock would result in high inventory costs; on the other hand, ordering too little stock would increase shortage costs. Therefore, demand uncertainty from the consumers will affect retailers’ procurement of green products greatly.

In order to solve the problem of demand uncertainty, this study proposes a flexible contracting mechanism for retailers to analyze green purchasing under uncertainty. We adopt binomial tree of the real option model as the main tool. In our model, we relax the assumption of time step being small and get some critical parameter such as P, u and d. Finally, we can get the price of a flexible contract. In the final part, we demonstrate numerical examples. In order to realize the trend of the price of the flexible contract and the expected profits, we carry out the sensitivity analysis for the variance, the quantity of the fixed contract and profit rate respectively.

From the numerical examples, we find that with the rising of the standard deviation, meaning the uncertainty in the market increases, the flexible contract price will increase and the expected profit will increase. In addition, when the quantity of the fixed contract increases, meaning the quantity of the flexible contract decrease, it will lead flexible contract price going down and the expected profit going down. Finally, when the profit rate increases, flexible contract price and the expected profit will increase as well.

目錄

第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究動機與目的 4
1.3研究方法 6
1.4研究流程 7

第二章 文獻回顧 9
2.1採購 9
2.1.1綠色採購 10
2.1.2消費者購買綠色產品意願 13
2.2 一般採購與進貨模式 16
2.3選擇權評價模式 18
2.3.1 選擇權 18
2.3.2二項樹 21
2.3.3選擇權與採購契約 23
2.4 小結 24

第三章 建構綠色採購決策模式 25
3.1 問題概述與假設 25
3.2彈性合約模式 27
3.2.1變數說明 27
3.2.2彈性合約概要 28
3.3彈性合約模型推導 29
3.3.1模型參數的推導 29
3.3.2公式總結與比較 32
3.3.3 N期模型推導 33
3.3.4第一期與最後期N的關係 34
3.3.5彈性合約效益分析 37
3.4數值分析 39
3.4.1 資料說明 39
3.4.2 彈性合約之數值案例分析以n=90為例 39
3.4.3彈性合約效益數值分析 42

第四章 敏感度與季節性分析 44
4.1敏感度分析 44
4.1.1銷售量標準差變動 44
4.1.2固定合約數量變動 46
4.1.3銷售量獲利率變動 47
4.2考慮需求季節性 49

第五章 結論與建議 53
5.1 結論 53
5.2研究限制與建議 54

參考文獻 56

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