臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

FANANI, LUTFI. 公車到站時間預測 - 目的確保使用者不錯過公車 (基於台北公車路線243的初步研究)
對於搭乘公車的人而言，公車到站時間是很重要的，而且這個時間會被很多因素所影響，例如: 等紅綠燈、交通擁塞以及天氣狀況等。這些因素都會影響到公車到站時間，進而延長乘客的等候時間，所以提供乘客精準的時間有助於乘客下決定以及減少在公車站等待公車的時間。本篇論文中提出一種常態分佈的方法並使用行車資料中的隨機變數針對台北的243公車進行預測，而我們所使用的資料來自於台北公車資料庫。
我們使用常態分佈的方式對公車的到站時間進行預測並確保使用者不會錯過公車，我們也將這個結果與已存在的方法進行比較。使用者使用我們所建議的方法在尖峰時間不會錯過公車的機率是93%，而一般時間是85%。已存在的方法在尖峰時間是65%，而一般時間是70%。經過我們的實驗證實我們所建議的方法比已存在的方法可以更加準確地預測公車到站時間。
關鍵字: 預測公車到站時間、等待時間、常態分布

FANANI, LUTFI. Bus Arrival Prediction – to Ensure Users Not to Miss the Bus (Preliminary Study based on Bus Line 243 Taipei).
The bus arrival time is the primary information for most city transport travelers. It is influenced by stochastic variation in number of factors, (e.g. intersection delay, traffic congestion, and weather condition) resulting in buses to deviate from the predetermined schedule and lengthening of passenger waiting times for buses. Providing passengers with an accurate information system of bus arrival times can reduce passenger waiting times. In this thesis, we used the normal distribution method to the random of travel times data in a bus line number 243 in Taipei area. In developing the models, data were collected from Taipei Bus Company. A normal distribution method used for predicting the bus arrival time in bus stop to ensure users not to miss the bus, and compare the result with the existing application. The result of our experiment showed that our proposed method has a better prediction than existing application, with the probability user not to miss the bus in peak time is 93% and in normal time is 85%, greater than from the existing application with the 65% probability in peak time, and 70% in normal time.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
摘 要 ......................................................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................... iv
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. viii
CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Background .................................................................................................................. 1
1.2. Motivation .................................................................................................................... 1
1.3. Research Object ........................................................................................................... 6
1.4. Thesis Structure ........................................................................................................... 6
CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................... 7
LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................... 7
2.1. Related Work ............................................................................................................... 7
2.1.1. Historical Data Based Model ................................................................................ 7
2.1.2. Regression Model ................................................................................................. 7
2.1.3. Time Series Model ............................................................................................... 8
2.2. Literature Review ........................................................................................................ 9
2.2.1. Random Variable .................................................................................................. 9
2.2.2. Normal Distribution ............................................................................................ 10
2.2.3. Cumulative Distribution Function ...................................................................... 12
2.3. Preliminary Analysis .................................................................................................. 13
2.3.1. Taipei Bus Company .......................................................................................... 13
2.3.2. Google Application ............................................................................................ 13
2.3.3. Travel Time ........................................................................................................ 13
2.3.4. Waiting Time ...................................................................................................... 14
2.3.5. Come Early and Come Late ............................................................................... 14
2.3.6. Peak Hour, Normal Hour .................................................................................... 14
CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................. 15
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 15
3.1. Experiment System .................................................................................................... 15
3.2. Experiment Design .................................................................................................... 15
3.3. Data ............................................................................................................................ 15
3.3.1. Data Collection ................................................................................................... 17
3.3.2. Data Processing .................................................................................................. 18
3.4. Testing System ........................................................................................................... 20
CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................. 24
EXPERIMENT AND RESULT ............................................................................................... 24
4.1. Arrival Prediction in Peak Hour ................................................................................ 24
4.1.1. Stop 7 to Stop 14 (S7, S14) .................................................................................. 24
4.1.2. Stop 8 to Stop 14 (S8, S14) .................................................................................. 26
4.1.3. Stop 9 to Stop 14 (S9, S14) .................................................................................. 28
4.1.4. Stop 10 to Stop 14 (S10, S14) ............................................................................... 30
4.1.5. Stop 11 to Stop 14 (S11, S14) ............................................................................... 32
4.1.6. Stop 12 to Stop 14 (S12, S14) ............................................................................... 34
4.2. Arrival Prediction in Normal Hour ............................................................................ 36
4.2.1. Stop 7 to Stop 14 (S7, S14) .................................................................................. 36
4.2.2. Stop 8 to Stop 14 (S8, S14) .................................................................................. 38
4.2.3. Stop 9 to Stop 14 (S9, S14) .................................................................................. 40
4.2.4. Stop 10 to Stop 14 (S10, S14) ............................................................................... 42
4.2.5. Stop 11 to Stop 14 (S11, S14) ............................................................................... 44
4.2.6. Stop 12 to Stop 14 (S12, S14) ............................................................................... 46
4.3. Comparison Result ..................................................................................................... 48
CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................. 51
DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................... 51
5.1. Weekend Condition ................................................................................................... 51
5.2. Dwell Time ................................................................................................................ 51
CHAPTER 6 ............................................................................................................................. 52
CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK ................................................................................. 52
6.1. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 52
6.2. Future Work ............................................................................................................... 52
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 53

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