臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文針對匯率提供跨國企業，在面對國際投資所考量決策門檻值衡量及各國技術轉換之生產據點移轉策略，提供數理模型之參考依據。利用實質選擇權法建構跨國企業跨區域投資之最適匯率決策評估，經由兩國匯率關係建構廠商四種不同生產技術採用之投(撤)資策略，分別為：維持廠商原有技術(繼續殘留於A國)、B國之勞力密集技術、C國之資本密集技術、或採用D國一定比例之資本及勞力密集技術並存之策略。重要變數敏感度分析中，發現投資價值反應出最適生產技術之選擇，當A國無風險利率 ( )、B國無風險利率 ( )、C國無風險利率 ( )、B國匯率初始值 ( ) 增加以及C國匯率初始值 ( )增加時，其最佳生產技術為勞力密集技術，而投資價值隨著參數數值的增加而減少，顯示當無風險利率增加時，其廠商應加緊投資的腳步，以免減少損失；兩匯率之相關係數( )增加時，其最佳生產技術亦為勞力密集技術，但不同的是，其投資價值隨著參數數值的增加而增加，顯示當兩匯率之相關係數( )增加時，應減緩投資的腳步，以增加投資價值。

This master thesis attempts to provide a threshold of international investment and constructs a mathematical model to be a reference for technology adoption. The thesis also aims to follow the real options approach to unearth the optimal real exchange rate of transnational investment decision. The proposed model introduces two axials to produce four investment strategies of a domestic firm as follows: keeping its original technology, adopting the labor intensive technology from Country B, adopting the capital intensive technology from Country C, and adopting the coexistence technology from Country D. This thesis then provides some suggestions from sensitivity analysis. There are three situations on risk premiums of . When the risk premiums of , , and increase, the suitable technology is the labor intensive technology from Country B. Also, the numerical example indicates when the initial exchange rate of Country B ( ) and the initial exchange rate of Country C ( ) increase, the suitable technology is the labor intensive technology from Country B, and both of their investment values are decreasing when the parameter is increasing. The numerical analysis of correlation coefficient ( ) indicates when increases, the suitable technology is also the labor intensive technology from Country B, but the investment value is increasing gradually.

Acknowledge i
Chinese Abstract iii
Abstract iiii
Table of Contents v
List of Table Contents vi
List of Figures viii
List of Notations ix

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Purposes and Problems 2
1.3 Research Limitations 3
1.4 Research Outline 5

CHAPTER Ⅱ REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1 International Technology Transfer 7
2.2 Nature of Technology Relative to Cost 11
2.3 The Literature of ROA with ITT 13
2.4 The Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuation 15

CHAPTER Ⅲ THE MODEL CONSTRUCTION
3.1 Model Construction 17
3.2 Assumptions 19
3.3 Enterprise Value and Threshold Value 20
3.3.1 The Investment Value of the Firm Keeping Original Technology 20
3.3.2 The Investment Value of Labor Intensive Technology from Country B 23
3.3.3 The Investment Value of Capital Intensive Technology from Country C 24
3.3.4 The Investment Value of Two Technologies Coexistence from Country D 26
3.4 Decision Thresholds 28

CHAPTER Ⅳ NUMERICAL AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
4.1 The Analysis of Risk Premium of Country A 32
4.2 The Analysis of Risk Premium of Country B 34
4.3 The Analysis of Risk Premium of Country C 36
4.4 The Analysis of Initial Exchange Rate of Country B 38
4.5 The Analysis of Initial Exchange Rate of Country C 40
4.6 Correlation Coefficient 42

CHAPTER Ⅴ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMEDATIONS
5.1 Conclusions 45
5.2 Recommendations 45
References 47

1.Campbell, J. A., “Options Analysis of the Timing of IS Investment Decisions,” Information & Management, Vol. 39, 2002, pp. 337-344.
2.Casanueva, C., “The Acquisition of Firm Technological Capabilities in Mexico’s Open Economy, The Case of Vitro,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 66, 2001, pp. 75-85.
3.Chen, X. and Reger, G., “The Role of Technology in the Investment of German Firms in China,” Technovation, Vol. 26, 2006, pp. 407–415.
4.Cheng, L. K., Qiu, L. D. and Guofu, T., “Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade in a Continuum Ricardian Trade Model,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 77, 2005, pp. 477-501.
5.Cohen, M. A. and Halperin, R. M., “Optimal Technology Choice in a Dynamic-Stochastic Environment,” Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 6, 1986, pp. 317-332.
6.Cui, A. S., Griffith, D. A., Cavusgil, S. T. and Dabic, M., “The Influence of Market and Cultural Environmental Factors on Technology Transfer between Foreign MNCs and Local Subsidiaries: A Croatian Illustration,” Journal of World Business, Vol. 41, 2006, pp. 100-111.
7.Dangl, T., “Investment and Capacity Choice under Uncertain Demand,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 117, 1999, pp. 415-428.
8.Dixit, A. and Pindyck, R. S., Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994.
9.Duku-Kaakyire, A. and Nanang, D. M., “Application of Real Options Theory to Forestry Investment Analysis,” Forest Policy and Economics, Vol. 6, 2004, pp. 539-552.
10.Dunning, J. H., Kim, Z. K. and Lee, C. I., “Restructuring the Regional Distribution of FDI: The Case of Japanese and US FDI,” Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 19, 2007, pp. 26-47.
11.Folta, T. B., Johnson, D. R. and O’Brien, J., “Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and the Likelihood of Entry: An Empirical Assessment of the Option to Defer,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 61, 2005, Article In Press.
12.Gilchrist, S. and Williams, J. C., “Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach,” Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 8, 2002, pp. 1-27.
13.Guan, J. C., Mok, C. K., Yam, R. C. M., Chin, K. S. and Pun, K. F., “Technology Transfer and Innovation Performance: Evidence from Chinese Firms,” Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 73, 2006, pp. 666-678.
14.Harmantzis, F. C. and Tanguturi, V. P., “Investment Decisions in the Wireless Industry Applying Real Options,” Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 31, 2007, pp. 107-123.
15.Hilli, P., Kallio, M. and Kallio, M., “Real Option Analysis of a Technology Portfolio,” Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 16, 2006, Article in Press.
16.Ito, K., “On Stochastic Differential Equation,” Memories American Mathematical Society, Vol. 4, 1951, pp. 1-51.
17.Jayaraman, V., Bhatti, M. I. and Saber, H., “Towards Optimal Testing of a Hypothesis Based on Dynamic Technology Transfer Model,” Applied Mathematics and Computation, Vol. 147, 2004, pp. 115-129.
18.Kaboski, J. P., “Factor Price Uncertainty, Technology Choice and Investment Delay,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 29, 2005, pp. 509–527.
19.Kaufmann, L. and Roessing, S., “Managing Conflict of Interests Between Headquarters and Their Subsidiaries Regarding Technology Transfer,” Journal of World Business, Vol. 40, 2005, pp. 235-253.
20.Khan, A. and Ravikumar, B., “Costly Technology Adoption and Capital Accumulation,” Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 5, 2002, pp. 489-502.
21.Koirala, G. P. and Koshal, R. K., “Productivity and Technology in Nepal: An Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Firms,” Journal of Asian Economics, 1999, Vol. 10, pp. 605-618.
22.Kong, J. J. and Kwok, Y. K., “Real Options in Strategic Investment Games between Two Asymmetric Firms,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 181, 2007, pp. 967-985.
23.Lan, P. and Young, S., “International Technology Transfer Examined at Technology Component Level: A Case Study in China,” Technovation, Vol. 16, 1996, pp. 277-286.
24.Lin, B.W. and Berg, D., “Effects of Cultural Difference on Technology Transfer Projects: An Empirical Study of Taiwanese Manufacturing Companies,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 19, 2001, pp. 287-293.
25.Lindh, T., “Productivity Slowdown due to Scarcity of Capital to Scrap in a Putty-Clay Model,” Economics Letters, Vol. 69, 2000, pp. 225-233.
26.Liu, W., “International Technology Transfer and Development of Technological Capabilities: A Theoretical Framework,” Technology in Society, Vol. 17, 1995, pp. 103-120.
27.Lukach, R., Kort, P. M. and Plasmans, J., “Optimal R&D Investment Strategies under the Threat of New Technology Entry,” International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2006, Article in Press.
28.Madeuf, B., “International Technology Transfers and International Technology Payments: Definitions, Measurement and Firms’ Behaviour,” Research Policy, Vol. 13, 1984, pp.125-140.
29.Mauer, D. C. and Sarkar S., “Real Options Agency Conflicts and Optimal Capital Structure,” Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 29, 2004, pp. 1405-1428.
30.Minbaeva, D., Pedersen, T., Bjo¨rkman, I., Fey, C. F. and Park, H. J., “MNCs Knowledge Transfer, Subsidiary Absorptive Capacity, and HRM,” Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 34, 2003, pp. 586-599.
31.Morrissey, M. T. and Almonacid, S., “Rethinking Technology Transfer,” Journal of Food Engineering, Vol. 67, 2005, pp. 135-145.
32.Murto, P., “Timing of Investment under Technological and Revenue-Related Uncertainties,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 31, 2007, pp.1473-1497.
33.Murto, P., Nasakkala, E. and Keppo, J., “Timing of Investments in Oligopoly under Uncertainty: A Framework for Numerical Analysis,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 157, 2004, pp. 486-500.
34.Müller, T. and Schnitzer, M., “Technology Transfer and Spillovers in International Joint Ventures,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 68, 2006, pp. 456-468.
35.Pennings, E. and Sleuwaegen, L., “The Choice and Timing of Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty,” Economic Modelling, Vol. 21, 2004, pp. 1101-1115.
36.Reddy, N. M. and Zhao, L., “International Technology Transfer: A Review,” Research Policy, Vol. 19, 1990, pp. 285-307.
37.Vishwasrao, S., Gupta, S. and Benchekroun, H., “Optimum Tariffs and Patent Length in a Model of North–South Technology Transfer,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 2005, Article in Press.
38.Wang, Z., “The Impact of China’s WTO Accession on Patterns of World Trade,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 25, 2003, pp. 1-41.
39.Yasar, M., and Morrison, P. C. J., “International Linkages and Productivity at the Plant Level Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Imports and Licensing,” Journal of International Economics, 2006, Article in Press.