臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著國民所得提高，人們在生活必需之外，對於工作之餘的休閒活動更加重視，也更願意將所得的一部分投注於此，使得觀光休閒產業成為各國經濟發展的一個重要產業，復由於資訊的廣泛傳播，電子媒體介紹，吸引人們對走出家門旅遊的期待，而便捷的交通、多國免簽的簽證障礙消除，均使觀光方便性大為提高，使觀光旅遊人數大為增加。但近年來除了以觀光目的來臺旅遊的旅客大幅成長以外，其他目的（例如：商務及探親）來臺旅客則呈現較小幅度之成長。因此本研究將藉由各項經濟指標與來臺旅客人數的變化，探討不同目的來臺旅客人數與總體經濟指標之關聯，針對觀光及商務等不同目的人數為研究標的，分析其受總體經濟指數影響的關聯性與程度，文中將運用單根檢定、一階差分及運用二階段迴歸等方式，以研究來臺觀光人數、國內生產毛額、消費者物價指數及匯率間的跨期動態效果。

With the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), people are more willing to pay for tourism, and it leads tourism and leisure industry become an important industry to contribute on economic development for countries in world. Moreover, broadcast of electrical media makes expectations of tourism grow up. Furthermore, tourism visitors are increasing these years because of wide dissemination of information, convenient transportation and multi-country visa-free agreements among Taiwan and other countries. In recent years, however, visitors for other purposes (i.e., business) to arrive in Taiwan are increasing with less significant magnitude, in contrast to the significant growth of visitors with tourism purpose. In this thesis, I aim to investigate the relationships among macroeconomic variables and visitor arrivals of different purposes in Taiwan. In particular, I discuss the macroeconomic determinants of visitor arrivals with purposes of tourism and business, respectively. I use the unit root test, first order difference, and two stage regression to analyze the relationships among visitor arrivals of different purposes, GDP, CPI, and exchange rate.

摘要 I
目錄 III
圖目錄 IV
表目錄 V
第一章緒論 1
第一節研究背景、動機與目的 1
第二節研究流程 6
第二章文獻探討 8
第一節總體經濟指標與觀光旅遊產業關係之相關文獻 8
第二節台灣總體經濟指標與觀光旅遊產業 11
第三節各國及我國匯率制度 13
第四節物價、利率與匯率關聯性 18
第五節經濟因素與國際觀光 21
第三章研究方法 23
第四章實證結果 24
第一節基本統計量 24
第二節單根檢定 27
第三節實證分析 29
第五章結論、研究限制與建議 35
第一節研究結論 35
第二節研究限制 37
第三節研究建議 38
參考文獻 39

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