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研究生:蔡婉勻
研究生(外文):WAN-YUN TSAI
論文名稱:預期壽命與經濟成長之因果關係-以Granger因果檢定分析
論文名稱(外文):Relationship Between Life expectancy and Economic Growth – Granger causality Analysis
指導教授:莊家彰莊家彰引用關係
指導教授(外文):CHIA-CHANG CHUANG
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北商業大學
系所名稱:國際商務系碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:貿易學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2018
畢業學年度:106
語文別:中文
論文頁數:50
中文關鍵詞:預期壽命經濟成長Granger因果檢定分析
外文關鍵詞:life expectancyeconomic growthGranger causality
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:33
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究以Granger因果檢定分析法,探討東協十國與經濟合作暨發展組織 35 國,從 1995年至 2015 年之資料數據。於多個影響變數中,篩選出 10 個重要因素。其中包含嬰兒死亡率、衛生支出、投資、改善衛生設施、人均收入、儲蓄率、生育、電力消耗、扶養比、網路普及率等,研究 10 個因素與預期壽命和經濟成長之因果關聯,從時間趨勢、經濟變數等方面進行迴歸分析探究本架構之影響。本研究估計檢定結果得出,經濟之成長會影響預期壽命,但預期壽命之增減不影響經濟成長,且兩者為反向關係,因經濟成長較成熟,經濟成長率波動不大,但壽命比較長。嬰兒死亡率、生育、平均收入、改善衛生設施、投資等與預期壽命呈現負向關係,儲蓄率、衛生之出、網路普及率、電力消耗扶養比等與預期壽命呈現正向關係。儲蓄率、衛生之出、生育、嬰兒死亡率、電力消耗、扶養比與經濟成長率呈負向關係,網路普及率、平均收入、改善衛生設施、投資與經濟成長率呈正向關係。
This research tries to use Granger causality Analysis, investigate 10 ASEAN member countries and 35 OECD member countries, the period from 1995 to 2015. Chose ten factors among many factors affecting life expectancy and economic growth. Then conducted multiple regression analysis to evaluate relationship between each factor、life expectancy and economic growth. The ten factors includes:infant mortality, health expenditure, total investment, improve sanitation facilities , per capita income, gross national savings, fertility, electric power consumption, age dependency ratio, individuals using the Internet. The result of the research shows that economic growth affects the life expectancy, but the increase or decrease in life expectancy will not affect the economic growth, and the relationship between the two is an inverse relationship. Due to more mature economic growth, the economic growth rate is not volatile, but it has a long lifespan. There is a negative relationship around life expectancy and each of the following independent variables:infant mortality, facilities, per capita income, improve sanitation facilities , total investment. There is a positive relationship around life expectancy and each of the following independent variables:gross national savings, health expenditure, electric power consumption, age dependency ratio, individuals using the Internet. There is a negative relationship around economic growth and each of the following independent variables:infant mortality, health expenditure, gross national savings, fertility, electric power consumption, age dependency ratio. And there is a positive relationship around economic growth and each of the following independent variables: total investment, improve sanitation facilities , per capita income, individuals using the Internet.
摘 要 i
ABSTRACT ii
目 錄 iii
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與背景 1
1.1.1 東南亞國家協會之介紹與概況 2
1.1.2 經濟合作暨發展組織(OECD)相關介紹 3
1.2研究問題與目的 3
1.3研究流程 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 預期壽命 6
2.2經濟成長指標 8
2.3 預期壽命與經濟成長之相關文獻 9
2.4變數文獻 11
2.4.1 嬰兒死亡率 11
2.4.2 衛生支出 12
2.4.3 投資 12
2.4.4 改善衛生設施 13
2.4.5 人均收入 13
2.4.6 儲蓄率 14
2.4.7 生育 15
2.4.8 電力消耗 16
2.4.9扶養比 16
2.4.10 網路普及率 16
第三章 實證方法設計與樣本資料 18
3.1 追蹤資料分析 (Panle Data Analysis ) 18
3.2 Granger因果檢定 19
3.3 研究架構 20
3.4 模型設計 20
3.5 研究假設 21
3.6變數定義 21
3.6.1 嬰兒死亡率(百分比) 21
3.6.2 衛生支出(總額佔GDP百分比) 21
3.6.3 投資(占GDP百分比) 22
3.6.4 改善衛生設施(完成百分比) 22
3.6.5 人均收入(每年成長百分比) 22
3.6.6 國民總儲蓄(佔GDP的百分比) 22
3.6.7 生育(平均每名婦女生育率) 23
3.6.8 電力消耗(人均千瓦小時) 23
3.6.9 扶養比(占勞動力人口百分比) 23
3.6.10 網路普及率(占人口百分比) 23
3.7 預期相關變數之說明 24
3.8整體資料敘述 25
3.9各國預期壽命 26
3.9.1東協預期壽命 26
3.9.2 OECD預期壽命 26
3.9.3高、中、低預期壽命趨勢圖 28
第四章 實證結果 31
4.1 敘述性統計分析 31
4.2 相關係數分析 34
4.3 Hausman Test檢驗 36
4.4因果關係實證結果 36
第五章 結論 42
5.1 結論 42
5.2 研究發現 43
5.3 研究建議與限制 43
參考文獻 44
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