臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，觀光旅遊產業的興衰與該國之經濟發展有著密不可分的重要關係。再加上，依Crouch(1994)、Lim(2006)彙整多篇文獻發現，匯率是影響國外觀光客之重要因素，因此，匯率政策除了會影響進出口之外，亦會影響國外觀光客來訪人次。另外，依據Chao et al.(2013)之研究發現，一經濟體系在有、無國外觀光客，匯率變動對旅遊財價格以及貿易收支會有截然不同的影響。因此本文將探討一經濟體系有、無國外觀光客，政府實施匯率目標區，旅遊業市場出現干擾是否亦會產生不同之影響，經由本文之分析，我們發現，經濟體系在沒有國外觀光客之狀況時，只有在資本移動程度非常高且「旅遊財價格效果」小於「旅遊財之財富效果」的情況下，政府實施匯率目標區，匯率不一定具有蜜月效果，於其他情況之下，政府實施匯率目標區，匯率均具有蜜月效果；然而在有國外觀光客之狀況時，不論資本移動程度相對較大或相對較小、「旅遊財之價格效果與遊客效果之總和」相對大於或小於「旅遊財之財富效果」，政府實施匯率目標區，匯率均不一定具有蜜月效果。
關鍵詞：目標區、蜜月效果、旅遊財價格、匯率

In recent years, the rise and fall of the tourism industry has had an inseparable and important relationship with the country’s economic development. In addition, according to multiple documents compiled by Crouch (1994) and Lim (2006), it is believed that the exchange rate is an important factor affecting foreign tourists. Therefore, apart from affecting imports and exports, exchange rate policies will also affect foreign tourists. Moreover, based on the study conducted by Chao et al. (2013), whether an economic system with or without foreign tourists, the changes of exchange rate will also have a very different impact on tourism prices and trade balances. Therefore, this article will explore the issues regarding whether an economic system with or without foreign tourists, exchange rate target zone implemented by the government, or the interference took place in tourism market will have different effects. This article reaches to an conclusion: in the scenario that an economic system has no foreign tourist, we found out that only when the capital mobility is relatively high and the “price effect of tourism” is less than the “wealth effect of tourism”, the exchange rate target zone implemented by the government does not necessarily have honeymoon effect. In other cases, the exchange rate will have honeymoon effect when the government carried out the exchange rate target zone. However, once having foreign tourists, the exchange rate zone implemented by the government regardless of whether the capital mobility is relatively large or small, the “total of the price effect of tourism and the effect of tourists” is larger or smaller than “the wealth effect of tourism”. In the target zone, the exchange rate does not necessarily have honeymoon effect.

第一章 緒論
第一節研究動機與目的
第二節文獻回顧
第三節 本文架構
第二章 無國外觀光客時政府實施匯率目標區之效果
第一節模型之建構
第二節模型之推導
第三節旅遊業市場干擾與匯率目標區
第四節政府實施匯率目標區之效果
第三章 有國外觀光客時政府實施匯率目標區之效果
第一節模型的建立與推導
第二節政府實施匯率目標區之效果
第四章結論
附錄A
附錄B
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