臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

臺灣每年受颱風侵擾，當颱風來襲時，大氣壓力降低會導致海平面上升，若恰逢滿潮與及颱風挾帶豪雨將使得河川溢堤機率提升，造成河口及沿岸附近居民生命財產的損失，因此颱風暴潮及河川洪水位的研究是目前不容忽視的課題。
本研究將44場歷史颱風及360場合成颱風經由ADCIRC模式模擬臺北淡水河河口之暴潮偏差量，再進行最大暴潮偏差量之頻率分析，選定最適合之機率分布推算不同重現期之最大暴潮偏差量，最後分別挑選歷史颱風及合成颱風不同重現期(100年、200年及500年)的暴潮偏差量，加上天文潮潮位，做為一維變量流河川模式下游邊界，進行淡水河流域之河川洪水位模擬。
一維變量流河川模式模擬結果顯示由44場歷史颱風推估重現期200年及500年之暴潮水位，有發生河川溢堤現象；而由360場合成颱風推估重現期100年、200年及500年之暴潮水位，則皆會導致河川溢堤。

Taiwan is hit by typhoons every year. The water level will be enhanced as a result of the decreasing the atmospheric pressure during typhoon events. The probability of inundation would be increased and result in property losses of estuaries and coastal nearby residents when the high tide meets the typhoon with strong rainfall. Therefore, the issues of storm surge and river flooding are urgent need to be studied.
In the present study, 44 historical typhoons and 360 synthetic typhoons were used to simulate surge heights in Taipei Tamsui River estuary using ADCIRC model. The maximum surge heights were then conducted with frequency analysis to generate surge heights under different return periods in accordance with historical and synthetic typhoons. The combination with surge height and astronomical tide was used to force downstream boundary condition using one-dimensional (1D) unsteady flow model to simulate flooding river stages in Tamsui River watershed.
The simulated results reveal that the generated surge heights under 200 and 500 return periods according to historical typhoons will result in overbank flow. The generated surge heights under 100, 200, and 500 return periods based on synthetic typhoons will produce overtopping in river.

目錄
摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 III
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 X
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 2
1.3 研究區域 3
1.4 研究流程 7
第二章 文獻回顧 10
2.1暴潮模式 10
2.2一維變量流河川模式 14
2.3頻率分析 17
第三章 模式與分析方法的介紹 20
3.1 先進環流模式 20
3.2 一維變量流河川模式 28
3.3 頻率分析 36
3.3.1 年超過值選取 36
3.3.2 統計模式選定與參數推估 38
3.3.3 最適機率分布選定 41
3.3.4 特定超越機率計算 43
第四章 模式檢定與驗證 46
4.1先進環流模式檢定與驗證 46
4.2 一維變量流河川模式檢定與驗證 61
第五章 暴潮位頻率分析及河川洪水位預測 80
5.1 歷史颱風暴潮位頻率分析 80
5.2 合成颱風暴潮位頻率分析 84
5.3 不同重現期河川洪水位預測之比較 88
5.3.1 一維變量流河川模式下游邊界為歷史颱風推算各重現
期之暴潮水位 90
5.3.2 一維變量流河川模式下游邊界為合成颱風推算各重現
期之暴潮水位 93

第六章 結論與建議 101
6.1 結論 101
6.2 建議 103
參考文獻 104

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