臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文利用Logistic 迴歸統計方法，建構企業信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)(尤其是非集團業)，考慮企業負債比率＞50﹪，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數。針對2000年至2012年間非集團企業，發生財務危機之151家台灣上市櫃公司，採Beaver（1966)的1：1配對原則，共計302個公司樣本。試圖找出那些因素能更準確地預測非集團企業發生財務危機的可能性，期望在公司尚未發生財務風險前，預測企業可能發生財務危機之機率，以達事前預警與風險管理之效。實證分析上，利用28個財務比率變數及4個公司治理變數，利用Pearson相關檢定與逐步迴歸消除共線性，並選取顯著變數，再設立含財務比率變數與公司治理變數的模型一；同變數比較之模型二進行Logistic迴歸分析，篩選出影響公司績效之顯著變數，作為預測企業財務預警之用。
實證結果發現，模型一影響非集團業公司績效之指標有經營能力、現金流量與公司治理指標。研究建議，提高應收帳款週轉率，增加每股現金流量，可改善公司經營能力與現金流量；儘早設置獨立董監事、避免會計師更換，以強化公司治理能力，提高公司績效。模型二會計師更換，連續三年呈現顯著性正向影響，因此，避免更換會計師，可降低信用風險發生機率。實證價值與管理涵義，非集團業實施公司治理，可降低公司發生信用風險之可能性，值得投資人決策參考。

By Logistic Regression Statistics, this study constructs two corporate credit risk models (for non-group enterprises), upon corporate debt ratio of >50﹪, in order to find the significant variables of corporate performance. The research targets are 151 listed non-group enterprises in Taiwan, which encountered financial distress from 2000 to 2012. The 1:1 matching principle of Beaver (1966) is adopted to collect a total of 302 corporate samples. This study attempts to determine the factors that can precisely predict the financial distress of non-group enterprises, as well as the probability before financial risk, thus achieving early warning and risk management. The empirical analysis uses 28 financial ratio variables and 4 corporate governance variables. By Pearson correlation test and stepwise regression, this study eliminates colinearity, and selects significant variables and significant variables. Model 1 is established with financial ratio variables and corporate governance variables. It is compared with Model 2, given the same variables, for logistic regression analysis. The significant variables that affect corporate performance are selected to predict corporate financial situations.
According to empirical findings, in Model 1, indicators of performance of non-group enterprises include operational capacity, cash flow and corporate governance. This study suggests that increasing the receivables turnover rate and cash flow per share can improve corporate operational capacity and cash flow. Moreover, establishing independent directors and supervisors and avoiding change of accountants can enhance corporate governance capability and corporate performance. In Model 2, the change of accountants has significant and positive effect for three continuous years. Thus, avoiding the change of accountants can lower credit risk. As to empirical value and managerial implication, non-group implementation of corporate governance can lower credit risk of enterprises. The findings can serve as references for investors’ decision-making.

目　　錄
摘　　要 i
Abstract ii
誌　　謝 iii
目　　錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章　緒論 1
1.1　前言 1
1.2　研究背景與動機 1
1.3　研究目的 2
1.4　研究架構與流程 2
第二章　文獻探討 4
2.1　集團企業與非集團企業 4
2.2　財務危機與信用風險 6
2.3　公司治理與公司績效 10
第三章　研究方法 13
3.1　研究架構 13
3.2　研究對象 15
3.2.1　非集團企業定義 15
3.2.2　信用風險公司定義 15
3.2.3　研究範圍與樣本 16
3.2.4　研究樣本年度分布 23
3.2.5　研究樣本產業分類 24
3.3　研究變數操作性定義 25
3.3.1　依變數 25
3.3.2　自變數 25
3.4　研究方法 36
3.4.1　常態性檢定（K-S檢定） 36
3.4.2　平均數檢定（M-U檢定） 36
3.4.3　 Logistic迴歸分析模型 37
3.4.4　 逐步迴歸法 38
第四章　實證結果與分析 39
4.1　樣本資料之敘述統計分析 39
4.1.1　財務危機發生前一年 39
4.1.2　財務危機發生前二年 42
4.1.3　財務危機發生前三年 45
4.2　樣本資料敘述性統計平均數與標準差之間倍率關係統計分析 48
4.2.1　非集團財務危機公司與非集團正常公司前一年 48
4.2.2　非集團財務危機公司與非集團正常公司前二年 50
4.2.3　非集團財務危機公司與非集團正常公司前三年 52
4.3　財務危機公司常態性檢定（K-S檢定） 54
4.4　危機與正常公司平均數檢定（M-U檢定） 56
4.5　Logistic迴歸分析 58
4.5.1　會計資訊變數之Logistic模型(一) 58
4.5.2　複迴歸模型(同變數比較)Logistic模型(二) 61
4.6　Logistic信用風險預警模型適合度檢定 63
第五章　結論與建議 64
5.1　研究結論 64
5.2　研究建議 67
參考文獻 68
簡歷 71

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