臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於決策範圍無所不包，影響程度亦廣，故決策之課題常為吾人所探討，但多數人會因情緒或忽略某重要因素等而影響決策品質的良窳，因此如何能夠讓決策者做出理性的決策就相形重要。有鑒於此，若能建構一完整思維的決策模式供決策參考時，除可讓人們了解決策之內涵外，尚可避免決策偏誤的發生，藉以做出符合理性之決策，提高決策之品質。

　　本研究先就各學者所認為應依循的決策流程加以辨認並探討其提出之根據與完備性，據以綜論出本文所建議決策程序。其次探討決策可能發生的偏誤以及影響決策的各種重要因素，並依其彼此間之關係結構，建構出決策關聯圖，再依此關聯圖為根基，導入決策過程，以建構出一套具邏輯性理性決策之程序性模式，供決策時之參考。

Owing to the fact that the field of making decisions includes all aspects and has a wide influence level, it is often studied by us. However, the majority may have an effect on the quality of the decisions depending on their emotion or their neglect of some important factors; therefore, it is important to think of a way to let people come to a rational decision. In view of this fact, if we managed to construct an intact thinking model of making decisions for people, it would not only help people to understand the contents of decision, but would also provide people not to misunderstanding it. Therefore, this can lead to a rational decision and an improvement of the quality.

The decision-making procedure that this study proposes is based on the procedure that every scholar thinks it should be and the studies of its basis and completeness. Then, the study discusses the possibility of the mistakes along with the various kind of important factors that would have effects on the decision. Furthermore, a decision chart according to the relation structure between each factor is constructed. Finally, a set of procedural ways with logical rational decision model based on the chart for the reference of decision making is constructed as well.

目 錄

中文摘要……………………...……………………………………….…I
英文摘要……………………...…………………………………………II
謝誌……………………...……………………………………………...III
目錄……………………...…………………………………………...... IV
圖目錄………………………...………………………………...……... VI
表目錄………………………………………………………………….VII

第一章　緒論….….….….….….…...…………………………………...1
第一節 研究動機與目的……………………………………………1
第二節 研究方法與流程……………………………………………2

第二章　文獻探討….….….…..….…………………………..…………5
第一節　理性的定義與性質…….….….….….……………………...5
第二節　過去文獻對決策程序步驟之建議、鳥瞰與比較分析…....8
第三節　決策偏誤之來源…………………………..………...…….13
第四節 決策程序中之主要考量因素……………………………..18


第三章 理性決策程序之要因結構及影響分析……………………..27
第一節 決策程序之論證與立場……………………………….….27
第二節 理性決策程序中誤判之影響分析…………………….….33
第三節 理性決策程序之要因辨認分析…….…………..……….44

第四章 理性決策之程序性模式…..…………………………….….59
　第一節　問題類型與環境辨認子模式………………………….….59
　第二節　目標與方案手段子模式……………………..…………..64
第三節 決策與行動子模式…………………………….………….68

第五章 結論與後續研究之建議…..…………………………….….72
　第一節　結論…..……………………………………….………….72
第二節 後續研究之建議…..……………..…………………….75

參考文獻………………………………………………………………..76







圖目錄
圖1.1：研究流程圖………….…………………………………...…..…........4
圖2.1：決策程序……………………………………………………………11
圖2.2：先入為主之影響………..……….…………………..……………...16
圖3.1：決策程序與決策偏誤關聯圖……………………….…..…….……43
圖3.2︰理性決策因素結構圖………………..………………...………...…57
圖4.1：問題類型與環境辨認子模式………….…………....……………..63
圖4.2：目標與手段子模式………….…………………………………..…67
圖4.3：決策與行動子模式…..………………………………………….…70






表目錄
表2.1：各學者對決策程序之看法..…………………………..………12
表2.2：美蘇對抗下美國決策之矩陣模式……………..…..…………13
表3.1：各學者對決策程序建議之分類表…………………..………..28

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