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研究生:黃純宜
研究生(外文):Hwang, Chwen-Yi
論文名稱:臺灣地區利率變動的總體效果
論文名稱(外文):Interest Rate Change To The Macroeconomic Effects In The Taiwan
指導教授:謝明瑞謝明瑞引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hsieh, Ming-Jui
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:金融研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1991
畢業學年度:79
語文別:中文
中文關鍵詞:利率變動臺灣經濟
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  開發中國家被認為提高銀行存款利率,可以減少黃金在外流竄追逐物資,減緩通貨膨脹的壓力;同時增加社會的儲蓄,提高銀行放款的能力,而益於經濟成長。但是在考慮金融雙元性的經濟體制時,提高銀行存款利率,若使民間借貸利率上升,營運資金的利息或本增加,並反應在物價上,則在短期間會造成物價上升、所得減少的停滯性通貨膨脹。因此,利率變動對物價及產出的影響便有爭議存在。臺灣地區過去基於經濟發展策略與金融、政治安定等因素,對利率採取管制措施。金融體系因而存在著信用配給和金融雙元等特性。本文的研究目的是探討在目前的金融體制下,政府解除法令上對利率的管制之後,銀行利率變動對臺灣經濟的影響。
  本文除了考慮臺灣早已存在的金融雙元特性之外,並加入異於其它開發中國家的經濟特徵,而學者較少探討的貨幣市場。藉由實質和金融並重的總機模型來作模擬分析,以瞭解臺灣地區在法令上解除利率管制之後,銀行存、放款利率變動對所得、投資及物價的影響;同時觀察銀行利率、貨幣市場利率和民間借貸市場利率三者在實證上的關係。
  實證結果顯示:1. 提高銀行存款利率,使投資在第二季增加,其它各季則減少,整個模擬期間物價下跌、所得減少,並未產生停滯性通貨膨脹。另外貨幣市場利率和民間借貸利率都隨著銀行存款利率的提高而上升,二者和銀行存款利率成正向關係。2. 提高銀行放款利率或同時提高銀行存、放款利率都使投資、所得在第二、三季增加,物價上升,但隨後投資、所得減少,物價下跌。貨幣市場利率和民間借貸利率都因銀行放款利率或存、放款利率同時提高的帶動而上升。
  因此,臺灣在利率解除管制之後,若將銀行存、放款利率提高,雖然在二、三季內會使投資、所得增加,物價上升,但就較長期來看,銀行存、放款利率提高,將會進入高利率時代,使得資金成本提高,投資、所得受影響而減少。所以為了提高目前的投資意願,並促進經濟成長,降低銀行存、放款利率應是一項具體且可行的措施。


  Many economists believe that a rise in bank rates in a developing country causes a decrease in inflation through its effects on reducing the funds available to expenditures on one hand; and, on the other hand, rises bank lending capability and eventually brings about economic growth through its effects on increasing national savings. However, with regard to the financial dualism of the economy, the private lending rates would be rising following the rise in bank rates leading to an increase in the cost of both existing and on coming borrowing. The latter would soon be reflected in the price level and cause inflation accompanied by a reduction in national income in the short run. It is in this respect that the effects of variations in interest rate on the price and output level is ambiguous and subject to controversy.
  The financial system in Taiwan, as predominated by interest rate regulation based upon her strategies toward economic development as well as the demand for stabilities both financially and politically, has long possessed characteristics such as credit rationing and financial dualism. However, as time pass by, financial deregulation is on its way. The purpose of this study is to simulate the effects of the interest rates deregulation on the economy of Taiwan. The focus is on the effects of variations in bank rates on income, investments, and price level. Moreover, empirical relations among bank rates, money market rates and the black market lending rates are also examined.
  Results of simulation obtained are as follows: (1) the increase in bank deposit rates causes a decrease in investments for the entire period simulated, with exception only in the second quarter both the price and income levels are falling for the entire period. Furthermore, both money market rates and black market lending rates are positively related to bank deposit rates. (2)In the case when bank lending rates are risen or both bank lending rates and deposit rates are risen, investments and income would be increased in the second and the third quarters. The price level rises. And, subsequently followed by a fall in all the variables. Similarly, both money market rates and black market lending rates would rise following the increase in bank rates. Finally, (3) it is a plausible strategy to decrease bank rates to promote investment and hence economic growth in the long run.

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