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研究生:王議龍
研究生(外文):Yi-Lung,Wang
論文名稱:以儲運觀點構建廠商短期貨運需求模式之研究
論文名稱(外文):Development of a Short-Run Freight Demand Model from Firms'' Logistics Point of View
指導教授:姜渝生,王小娥
指導教授(外文):Yu-Sheng,Chiang , Shaw-Er,Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理(科學)學系
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1994
畢業學年度:82
語文別:中文
論文頁數:239
中文關鍵詞:存貨理論運量二步驟校估法轉換模式選擇性偏誤
外文關鍵詞:Inventory TheoryShipment SizeTwo-Stage Estimation Pro-
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國內有關貨運現況研究之文獻,大都採用總計型態之資料來分析;少數使
用個別廠商資料之研究,因受限於問卷調查的困難、資料建立不易、及研
究方法上未能突破等諸多因素,以致研究結果均不甚理想,而無法充分說
明台灣地區貨運問題之所在。本研究共計發出1,549份問卷,有效回收問
卷數為321份,有效回收率為20.72 %。調查對象為以水泥、穀物(小麥
、玉米、黃豆、大麥)、糖、鹽、金屬物料、濃縮果蔬汁、及肉類等當生
產原料之各廠商。本研究除了配合問卷調查方式之改進來收集廠商相關儲
運成本資料外,並藉由廠商及公會實際訪談,來了解國內廠商在實際儲運
方面所考慮之因素。此外,本研究亦探討由廠商儲運觀點構建一成本函數
或利潤函數,其中保有充分之儲運成本項間「儲」與「運」的權衡關係,
然後從該函數來推導運具與運量之混合選擇模式的可能性。本研究使用轉
換模式來分析廠商之貨運需求行為,其中運具視為間斷性之選擇,運量視
為連續性之選擇,模式中均含有充分之儲運成本變數,並且符合國內之貨
運實況,而非直接引用國外文獻中所使用之變數。本研究模式之實証部份
與敏感度分析結果中,均証明了運具與運量確實應同時考慮,而不宜分開
構建模式,這也說明了以轉換模式來分析存貨理論之運具與運量選擇應同
時考慮的問題為可行。根據廠商實際訪談、問卷調查、及實証分析結果,
本研究可得下列幾點較重要之結論:1.原料運送發生延滯以及原料在運
送時發生毀損或數量不符之情形,對廠商影響不大。2.廠商可以不用設
定較高之安全庫存量,甚至可採機動或每天進貨的方式來作生產決策之考
量。3.廠商在作運具選擇時,非只單純就運具屬性或某一儲運成本來作
考量。4.原料年需求量變化與公鐵路貨車數是否足夠對廠商運具選擇之
影響較運費、運送時間等運具屬性變化之影響為大。
Most of previous studies of freight demand in Taiwan used
aggregate statistic data for their analysis. Limited number of
studies using disaggregate data have not been very suc- cessful
due to a number of factors including data limitations and
methodology difficulties, etc. This study surveyed 1,549
domestic firms using cement, cereals(wheat, corn, soya bean and
barley), sugar, salt, metals, concentrated juice or meat as an
input material for production. The survey was done by combining
the methods of postcard,tele- phone interview and the visit to
firms and unions. An useful sample of 321 firms was collected.
The main purpose of the survey is to understand the factors
that domestic firms would consider in their logistics process
and to compile a data base for estimating a freight demand
model to describe domestic firms'' logistics / transportation
behaviour. We use switching model to analyze the freight demand
be- haviour of firms, where the choice of mode is regarded as a
discrete one and the choice of shipment size is continuous.
Thes pecification of the model includes the logistics cost
variables derived from the survey. The empirical analysis in-
dicated that to model the joint choice of mode and shipment
size from logistics inventory theory using switching model is
feasible. The main findings of our study include : 1.The
problem of delay, loss and damage in transportation is not very
cruical to domestic firms due to the fact that Taiwan is small.
2.For the same reason, firms usually do not set a high level of
safety stock. Some firms even place their order flexibly when
they used it without considering safety stock. 3.Firms do not
consider only a particular mode attribute or or a logistics
cost in their mode choice decisions. 4.The userate of input
materials and the sufficient supply of trucks and rail cars
have more significant influence on firms'' decisions of mode
choice than the attributes of mode such as freight rate, travel
time, etc.
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