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研究生:鍾興漢
研究生(外文):CHUNG,HSIN HAN
論文名稱:資本預算之不確定性探討:確定因子在投資決策上的應用
論文名稱(外文):FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: CERTAINTY FACTORS IN CAPITAL BUDGETING
指導教授:吳仁和吳仁和引用關係
指導教授(外文):WU,JEN HER
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:資訊管理研究所
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1994
畢業學年度:82
語文別:中文
論文頁數:83
中文關鍵詞:不確定性曖昧不明決策確定因子
外文關鍵詞:UncertaintyAmbiguityDecisionCertainty Factor.
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
許多學者已發現不確定性(Uncertainty)例如機率之曖昧不明(Ambiguous
Probability) 會影響決策績效 (Performance) ,並指出所有決策模式都
應考慮不確定性。然而,在傳統的工程經濟/資本預算決策模式中,有些
以機率處理不確定性,有些則完全將其忽略。但不管何種模式,機率或其
它變數及其值都被假設為確定或合適的,而以此模式所產生之結果做為決
策之主要依據。因為忽略不確定性之考慮,其決策品質是令人質疑的。本
文乃以分析的方法(Analytic Approach) 探討如何將確定因子
(Certainty Factor)與傳統的工程經濟/資本預算模式整合,使新的模式
不但擁有傳統模式之特性,更可考量不確定性之問題,以彌補傳統之不足
。文中並以範例示範此新模式對資本預算中不確定性問題之處理。
Decision performance could be affected by uncertainties, such
as ambiguous probabilities, was previously pointed out by
various researchers. Furthermore, researchers stated that any
theory of decision weights must account for the effects of
ambiguity or vagueness about probabilities. However, in the
traditional models of engineering economy or capital budgeting,
some handle uncertainties with probabilities while others even
neglect them totally. In the traditional approach,
probabilities and/or other variables are treated as if they are
certain and suitable. Therefore, decisions based on
computations of these model are suspect because omission of
uncertainties may significantly affect decision performance.
Using an analytic approach, we develop a new mechanism for
taking uncertainties into account. It formally integrates
certainty factors with the traditional models of engineering or
capital budgeting to provide additional information for
evaluating the decision processes. This new approach not only
possesses the properties of the traditional approach, but also
endeavors to overcome shortcomings of the traditional approach.
An example is provided to illustrate the processes and results
of the traditional and new approaches.
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