(3.226.72.118) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/05/12 06:27
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:黃正成
研究生(外文):Huang, Jane-Chane
論文名稱:財務預測資訊內涵之實證研究
論文名稱(外文):The Information Content Study of Finacial Forecasting
指導教授:薛富井薛富井引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hsueh, Fu-Ching
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:文化大學
系所名稱:國際企業管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1994
畢業學年度:82
語文別:中文
論文頁數:65
中文關鍵詞:財務預測資訊內涵
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:10
  • 點閱點閱:109
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
  本論文乃以實證分析來探討財務預測報表的發佈是否對該公司股價造成影響,亦即本研究的目的:財務預測是否具有資訊內涵(information content)?
  本研究的研究期間為八十一年度及八十二年度,共得八十七個樣本,估計期訂為二年,並以週資料(週報酬率)進行研究,觀察宣告日前後各四週(一個月)內股價的變動情形。在進行實證分析前先以dw自我相關檢定檢視模式的適合性,而在分析模式上,則以市場模式、市場調整模式及均數調整模式來進行,並利用平均殘差與累積平均殘差來觀察異常報酬的變動情形,以t檢定其顯著性,經由實證結果,解納出三點結論:
  (一)就事件期九週內,平均殘差有六週出現正值,而累積平均殘差更有八週出現正值,顯示對投資大眾來說,財務預測報表的發佈是一項利多消息,而這可歸因於上市公司偏好樂觀表現達其預測性財務報表,但也導致了日後多作修正。
  (二)就(tAR)而言,宣告日前四週內僅一週出現顯著異常報酬(接受HI),而在宣告日在內的後五週中,則有三週出現顯著異常報酬,而在平均報酬調整模式中,事件期九週中有八週是顯著的,表示財務預測是有資訊內涵(情報效果)的。
  (三)無論就AR或CAR來說,事件期中以宣告日當週與宣告日後第三週的異常報酬最顯著,這與財務預測報表訊息在媒體上發佈的時間,有所關聯。
  This study uses empirical analysis to examine whether the publication of forecasting financial statements will affect a company''s stock price. i. e., the purpose of this study is to test whether financial for-casting conains "information content."
  This study covers the period 1992-1993 based on the weekly rate of return of samples. It examines the fluctuation of stock price within four weeks before and after the declaration day. prior to the empirical test,a DW autocorrelation test is applied to check. the aqqlicability of the model. Then theis study proceeds with Market Model, Market Adjustment Model and Mean Adjustment Modcl and uses average residual and Accumulated average residual to observe the fluctuation of abnormal return. By T-test, the significance is te-sted.
  Three conclusions are made as follows:
  First, within the 9 weeks of the events, the average residual of 6 weeks shows positive and furthermore, the accumulated average residual of 8 weeks also shows positive. It reveals that the publication of forcasting financial statements is considered by the public as favorable. Such a view results from the optimistic forecasting financial statements that most listing companies prefer to publish, However, the optimistic forecasting often leads to later amendments. Second, as to t(AR), Within 4 weeks prior to declaration day. only one week shows significant abnormal return(accepting H1). While within 5 weeks after the declaration day, 3 weeks demonstrate significant abnormal return. In Mean Adjustment Model, during the 9 weeks of the events, 8 weeks show significant results.It means that financial forecasting contains "information content."
  Third, no matter in terms of AR or CAR during the events, the abormal returns of the declaration day and the third week follwing it are the most significant. This relates to the time of the publication lf forecast-ing financial on newspers.
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
無相關期刊
 
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔