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研究生:汪季尼
研究生(外文):Wang Chi-ni
論文名稱:危機處理的理論與實務:美國處理波斯灣危機之研究
論文名稱(外文):Theory and Practice on Crisis Management - A Case Study of the U.S. Government in Managing the Persian Gulf Crisis
指導教授:包宗和包宗和引用關係
指導教授(外文):Bau Tzong-ho
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:國際事務與戰略研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:國際事務學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1994
畢業學年度:82
語文別:中文
論文頁數:238
中文關鍵詞:危機處理威脅決策模式組織模式
外文關鍵詞:Crisis ManagementCoercionDecision-making ModelOrganizational
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本論文主要透過危機處理的理論研究,以了解波灣危機期間美國政府的處
理過程,進而探討引發戰爭的原因(雖然嚇阻戰略成功,但威脅(
coercion)戰術卻失敗),以及評估因應方案之缺失,作為日後研究危機
處理的參考。本論文的研究目的首先在運用危機處理的理論,並從艾里
遜(Graham T. Allison)的決策模式來解釋美國政府的決策過程;以探討
危機處理的原則與決策模式之關聯性;並藉此建立一個良好的模式供我國
政府在未來面臨危機時之參考。從研究中發現一套良好的危機處理原則與
適當的決策模式,將有益於提升面臨危機情境時的決策品質,也關係到危
機處理的成敗。而危機處理的意義在於:一、避免戰爭;二、維護並爭取
國家利益。而一個嚴謹的決策過程所導致的結果必合於國家利益,也能順
利化解危機。反之,偏差或錯誤的決策過程,即使能成功的達成戰略目標
,危機期間充滿不確定的機會與運氣,以及所冒的戰爭風險,卻是難以估
計。為了妥慎起見,決策者不可掉以輕心。美國政府的決策者忽略了決策
模式中組織模式的重要性,而過份依賴決策者心靈的判斷,以致造成危機
僵持的結果,這是走向戰爭,使得危機處理失敗的重要原因,雖然最後成
功地光復科威特、擊潰伊拉克軍隊、並保衛住沙烏地阿拉伯,但從整體的
決策過程與決策模式上的評估來看,仍有其瑕疵。而這個危機處理失敗的
例子,正可供未來台海一旦發生危機時,我政府如何應變的借鏡。
In this thesis, efforts are made using crisis management and
decision-making process of the U.S. Government during the
Persian Gulf crisis. Firstly, theories in crisis management
and in particular, Allison''s three models are used to explain
the decision-making process of the U.S. Government during the
crisis. The relationships between principles of crisis
management and decision-making models are established
accordingly. Consequently , a decision-making model for crisis
management is proposed, which should prove to be a value to the
R.O.C. Government when facing crises in the future. Through
this case study, we observed how management principles and
decision-making models help in promoting the quality of
decision-making in crisis situation. The guiding principles of
crisis management, namely, 1. avoid war 2. maintainence and
obtain national interests. A decision- making process must
adhere to national interests otherwise the crisis will not be
resolved. Conversely, a deviated or unsuccessful decision-
making process may accomplish its strategic goal on pure luck.
But the risk of going to a war unprepared or for an unjustified
cause is absolutely unacceptable . A decision maker must take
prudent decision-making seriously. Although the goals in terms
of the recovery of Kuwait, the destruction of Iraqi Forces, and
the protection of the Kingdom of Saudi Arab were all achieved
successfully, there are many shortcomings in the quality of
decision-making process. It is sound that the R.O.C. Government
is always well prepared to face both the visible and invisible
challenges ahead of time. From this case study, experience can
be learned in dealing with probable and highly dangerous crisis
that many occur during the interaction between authorities on
both sides of the Taiwan strait in the future.
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