臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究目的乃是建立及驗證模糊邏輯(Fuzzy logic)應用於支援財務分析
之系統。本系統運用因果比率分析中的因果關係為模糊邏輯中的模糊規
則(Fuzzy rule)，以期對財務中的短期償債能力、獲利能力、經營能力及
財務結構等四項財力構面做一解釋， 希望對財務有問題之公司找出問題
及生機，對於財務健全的公司發掘隱藏的財務問題。關於模糊邏輯支援財
務分析系統的的建立：乃是運用模糊數(Fuzzy Number)為財務分析知識表
達(Knowledge representation)方式、模糊邏輯為推理機構(Inference
engine)、建構成模糊邏輯支援財務分析系統。關於模糊邏輯支援財務分
析系統的驗證：從股票上市公司公開的財務報告中，選取財務狀況良好及
有危機公司的財務報表，分別由系統與財務專家做個案分析，將系統執行
的結果與財務專家判斷的結果做實證分析。

Enterprise''s financial situation expressed its operating
performance. Financial ratios analysis was usual applied to
diagnosis financial situation. Some of study effort on
selecting ratios. Most of study applied multivariate
discriminant analysis or regression analysis. Try to find out
financial ratio factors about variables of high discriminant
ability from healthy and failing firms. Most empirical research
selected five-year period before financial distress and non-
distress. There are difference variables of high discriminant
ability with difference periods. It is difficult to carry out.
The purpose of this essay is to construct and validate FEDFAR(
Financial Ratio Evaluation / Diagnosis by Fuzzy Approximate
Reasoning System). It applied fifteen cause-and-effect ratios
to built up fuzzy rules. These are further divided into four
groups: liquidity, profitability, activity and balance,
according to publish guild of bank. FEDFAR could aid user to
analysis financial situation and explain operating performance.
The study utilized 7 listed stock companies in Taiwan is
tested. FEDFAR were validated against the standard of human
expert judges.