臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文的目的是在考慮用盡外匯準備機率及用盡外匯準備成本之下,利用台
灣之1984年第三季到1994年第二季的資料,運用聯立方程技巧 ,來計算最
適外匯準備,並與實際資料作一比較.再者,探討匯率制度對外匯準備持有
行為之影響.最後,是其他方法的使用,比率分析方法和Heller模型之結論
是台灣有過多的外匯準備.而計量分析方法的結論是貨幣供給對外匯準備
最有解釋能力.總之,在提供中央銀行衡量最適外匯準備的一種方法.

The purpose of this paper is demonstrated on Taiwan data for
1984:3-1994:2,to use a simulation technique,optimum reseres
were calculated and compared with actual data to account for
the probability of reserve depletion and the cost of reserve
depletion. Next,the exchange rate system can affect exchange
reserve behavior.Last,we use other approach,ratio comparision
analysis and Heller model for conclusions is to has much
exchange reseves in Taiwan.Economictral analyais for
conclusions is money supply o exchange reserves has high
explanation.To sum up, the purpose of this paper is to suggest
a approach to measure exchangeeserves for Central Bank.