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研究生:吳明憲
研究生(外文):Wu, Ming-Hsien
論文名稱:運輸規劃作業中之貨運需求分析架構及方法之研究
論文名稱(外文):A study on the framework and method of freight demand analysis in transportation planning processes
指導教授:姜渝生, 王小娥
指導教授(外文):Yu-Sheng Chiang, Shaw-Er Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理(科學)學系
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1996
畢業學年度:84
語文別:中文
論文頁數:110
中文關鍵詞:貨運需求分析運輸規劃投入產出
外文關鍵詞:freight demand analysistransportation planninginput-output
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  • 被引用被引用:7
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運輸規劃之實務作業長久以來均以客運問題為重心,對於貨運問題之探討
則相當簡略,並未如客運般受到相等重視。而在文獻探討中有關貨運需求
之研究雖不多,實也累積不少之研究成果與心得,但這些研究成果與心得
卻並未能納入實務運輸規劃之作業中,顯示貨運需求分析在理論與實務運
輸規劃作業間有著嚴重脫節的現象。分析其主要的原因包括資料限制、資
料取得困難、以及研究方法困難等。本研究之目的在於探討改善運輸規劃
作業中貨運需求分析與預測之架構及方法之一可能性,使其作業程序較具
理論基礎,更接近貨物運輸之實際狀況。本研究所研擬之運輸規劃作業中
之貨物需求分析架構及方法,使用目前台灣地區容易取得之總體資料,並
且考慮貨物需求理論之投入產出理論及存貨理論。從這些總體資料估計出
個體廠商之產出水準,藉由投入產出關係之運作,推估出各產業各規模廠
商之貨物使用率,並配合鐵、公路之貨運資料,從事廠商運具選擇之短期
分析。此一方法不僅解決了資料取得困難之問題,並且具有貨物需求之理
論基礎,本研究之實證分析結果亦顯示此一方法引入運輸規劃作業之可行
性。本研究之實證分析著重於短期廠商運具選擇行為之轉移,在運量轉移
之敏感度分析結果顯示,除非市場商自備鐵路側線,且對該貨種的年使用
量大、運送距離遠等因素相互配合,廠商才會考慮使用鐵路運輸,若欲以
調整費率為達到貨運運具選用之轉移目的,其效果不易。
The transportation planning processes in practice emphasize
passengerproblems much more than freight problems. The freight
demand models that havebeen used in planning process are very
simple and primitive. However, there are many theoretical
studies of freight demand have been done in the past , butthe
models developed in these studies have not been applied in
transportationplanning. Major reasons for that include lack of
disaggregate freight data andlack of adequate analytical method.
This research attempts to present a comprehensive framework for
freight demand analysis and forecast. This framework serves as a
basis for developing a operational process to analyze the
practicalfreight transportation problems. The framework and
method proposed in this research involve input-output theory and
inventory theory. The use rate of freightas input for production
for each industry and firm can be estimated throughinput-output
relationship using public available data sources. Using
waybilldata of railroad and highway and the estimated use rate
data, short-term freighttransportation policy analysis can be
performed. This method not only solvesthe problem of lacking
data, but also provides theoretical background to freightdemand
analysis in practice. Empirical analysis in our study indicates
thatthe proposed method is feasible to be used in transportation
planning process.The empirical analysis of this research
emphasizes the short-term mode choicebehavior of firm.
Sensitivity analysis indicated that the choice of mode willnot
easily be changed simply by fare adjusted. For a firm to use
rail to shipment its input material requires several important
factors, such as large use rate of the input material, long
distance of shipment, existence of rail siding, etc.
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