臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以羅機模式為基礎，分別以不同之方法構建處理旅行時間不確定性
之運具選擇模式，並與傳統未考慮旅行時間不確定性之運具選擇模式加以
比較，並以台灣地區非假日之城際（台南至台北、台南至台中及台南至高
雄）旅運資料進行實証分析，得到以下幾點結論：1.旅行時間不確定性確
實會影響旅運者之運具選擇行為，且大致而言，旅運者對於旅行時間不確
定性之評價會高於對旅行時間本身之評價。2.公商務旅次之旅運者對於旅
行時間不確定性之感受較非公商務旅次之旅運者為強烈，本研究之結果顯
示公商務旅次之旅運者屬於風險厭惡者，非公商務旅次之旅運者屬於風險
中立者。3.旅行距離之長度不同，旅運者對於旅行時間之評價亦有所不同
。本研究發現，旅次長度愈短，旅運者對旅行時間變化之敏感度愈強烈，
其旅行時間價值愈高。

This research, based on Logit Model , built several mode-choice
models to deal with the travel time variability problem . The
trip data of weekday travellers from Tainan to Taipei , Tainan
to Taichung and Tainan to Kaoshiung were used to calibrate the
parameters of these models and the results were compared with
the traditional mode choice models without considering travel
time variability . Several conclusions of this research could be
noted :1.The travel time variability will affect the mode-choice
behavior of the travelers . And , in general , the valuation of
the travel time variability is higher than the valuation of the
mean travel time .2.The business travelers were more sensitive
to the travel time variability than non-business travelers . We
also found that the business travelers were risk-averse , while
the non-business travelers were risk-neutral .3.The valuation of
the travel time to the travelers were affected by the travel
distance . The shorter the trip length , the higher the
valuation of travel time.