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Abstract
The cost of High Speed Railway(HSR) construction is very large.
From the view point of effective utilization of the
domestic resources, its induced economic benefit has
to be evaluated carefully. We established a macro-
economic econometric model to quantify the influences of high
speed railway on macro-economics and simulated the effect
of different investment with and without the method of BOT
on domestic macro-economics. The model included twenty-
two behavior equations and eleven identity equations.
The results indicated that high speed railway construction would
increase real gross domestic product, real private comsumption,
real private investment, real import. Nominal
interest rate would increase too. The wholesale price
index would not be effected. Consumer price index
would increase slightly. When the proportion of private sectors
investment was 46.46%, the minimal private sector investment
alternative will increase GDP 463,108 million dollars
during the building period (AD 1996-2003).
Total output and employees of services industry would increase
more significantly than industries, whether in the
building and operating period. This result is consistent
with the empirical results of countries with high
speed railway in operation. Besides, when the BOT method was
adopted, the more investment of private sectors, the
greater economic effect of GDP. This would cause higher
interest rate and higher consumer price index.
Keywords: high speed railway, macro-economic, macro-economic
econometric model .
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