|
Enhanced greenhouse effects may cause global climatechange,
and thus change not only regional temperature, butalso
precipitation. In general, global mean temperature isexceted to
increase 1.5--4.5 when atmospheric CO2 concentrationis doubled.
Although global precipition likely increases,that regional
precipition will increase or decrease is not sure.This study ill
assess the impacts of climate change on runoff,the shortage of
irrigation and future plan in Ta-An River. General Circulation
Model (GCM) can simulate atmospheric physical propertywell for
large scale, but the information from GCM is not enough
todescribe the local hydrological characteristics. The research
adoptmean monthly temperature and precipitation from GCM to
amend thehistorical data and build two scenarios for the
watershed of Ta-AnRiver. With weather simulation model and two
water balance model, wecan generate new daily temperature,
precipitation, streamflow andevpotranspiration. This study is
simulate the upstream flow of Ta-An River, and theresults show
that the streamflow will reduce in droght period. Thus itis more
important to manage seaonal water resources.
Consideringtemperature and precipitation changes mean annual
streamflow willincrease 45%, but the difference are from model
to model. Consideringtemperature, the annual streamflow will
reduce 10%. For the irrigationplan, the rice seeding period may
be suffered from drought, and thusthe study suggests reducing
irrigation area or late planting. It isnot obvious the quantity
from Shyh-Lin Weir is affected by climatechange. Advanced
research is necessary for the management and planningin TA-An
River. This study provides a research in assessment ofclimate
change on water resources. In order to assess the impacts
ofclimate change on water resources, advanced research sould be
pay moreattention to climate simulation and the link between
global climateand regional weather.
|