近年來由於國人對海外旅遊之廣大需求而帶動了旅遊商品的多樣化及旅遊市場之蓬勃發展，各旅行社為了因應此廣大之市場而設計出各式各樣的旅遊產品，諸如自助旅遊、自由行、定點旅遊、套裝旅遊等產品，唯有套裝旅遊產品歷久不衰，因為相較之下，消費者參加套裝旅遊將會感到輕鬆、愉快、省事，真正可以達到休閒渡假之目的。本研究乃運用敘述性偏好模式就消費者選擇套裝旅遊產品之偏好行為加以探討。
　　敘述性偏好模式（Stated Preference Model）為一個體選擇機率模式，近十年來國內在各領域上之應用相當廣泛，惟在行銷領域上之應用並不普遍。因此，本研究嘗試以多項羅吉特模式應用於消費者對套裝旅遊產品之各種屬性的評估和選擇行為加以探討，同時建立其選擇行為模式，以瞭解消費者之購買決策變數，並比較不同之決策變數對選擇行為之影響。最後，應用所建立之模式進行市場佔有率之預測及敏感度分析，以提供業者從事管理規劃及策略研擬之參考。
　　研究結果發現，套裝旅遊產品之價格對於消費者之選擇行為最具影響力；天數、航班型態則對29歲以下之消費者具影響力；而自由活動對40歲以上者較具影響力；年齡愈長者對於行程特色之重視程度愈強。此外，模式之配合度良好。最後，依所構建之模式以佔有率較高之方案三〔C〕“九州全覽”為例，進行策略研擬，結果顯示策略四〔價格調降5%〕之效果最佳，其佔有率提高幅度最大。

　　In recent years, the considerable domestic demand of overseas travel have brought growth to the travel industry. The travel agents try to design the most suitable travel products for their target market in order to satisfy the vast demand in our society. Among the products such as spot travel, special interest tour, package tour and so on, the package tours are still welcome in our market because of their offering the real goal of recreation. This study sttempts to investigate the consumer''s behavior in travel itinerary choice by using Stated Preference Model.
　　The Stated Preference Model is a probability model of individual selections. For the last decade, this model has also been widely used in various fields locally. However, application in marketing is still rare. Therefore, this study is an attempt to investigate the application of the Stated Preference Model in consumer''s behavior in travel itinerary choice. A model of choice behavior was also established to understand the variables affection the purchase decisions by consumers. The impact of different variables on the choice behavior was also compared. Finally, the model established was used to predict market shares and to analyze strategy sensitivity, which can provide references for management planning of strategy study to the travel agents.
　　The results of this research indicate that most of the consumers are affected by the price of the travel product when they make decisions to select the package tour. The days and flights'' departure time of the tours are very important affecting factors to those whose age are under 40. The older they are, the more attention they will pay on the contents of the tours. The results also show that the cooperation of the model is quite good. By conducting a strategic simulation on the third alternative, which has a higher market share, through the model established in this study, it shows that the best strategy is to adjust the price 5% down to increase the market sharing.