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研究生:高宏軒
研究生(外文):Kao Hong-shwen
論文名稱:都市複雜空間系演化自我組織臨界性之探索-有限理性典範的應用
論文名稱(外文):Exploration into self-organised criticality of urban spatial systems evolution - applicaion of the bounded rationality paradigm
指導教授:賴世剛賴世剛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lai Shih-kung
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:都市計劃研究所
學門:建築及都市規劃學門
學類:都市規劃學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1998
畢業學年度:86
語文別:中文
中文關鍵詞:複雜有限理性細胞自動體自我組織都市空間結構
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近年來,研究都市空間模式的方法隨著都市發展的多樣性與複雜化開始從過去「由上而下 」的方法轉移至「由下而上」的探討。所謂「由上而下」是指視都市發展存在一均衡點,再藉由經濟計量或人文地理等觀點尋找此一都市發展的最佳模式與規模;而「由下而上」則是從個體的偏好與行為出發,探討彼此之間及其與大環境的互動,嘗試瞭解個體的行為與整體都市的演變其間所連結的關鍵。由於個體的數量是極為龐大的,因此其選擇的組合也是相當複雜的,於是視都市為一複雜空間系統成為瞭解都市發展演變的新方法。 都市空間中的土地使用變遷除了受到總體環境因素的影響外,其和周圍相鄰土地的互動結果,也是決定將來土地使用模式的關鍵因素。以數理模型推導都市的土地使用模式常假設市場的資訊是充分的,而空間決策者可獲得該充份的資訊,並忽略了個別開發者資訊獲取及決策能力的差異。因此在開發決策者是有限理性的假設下,本研究以二維細胞自動體(cellular automata)進行土地使用變遷的電腦模擬,藉以觀察個體單元間的互動結果在 整體大範圍土地使用所呈現的形態。實驗設計中將都市中的每一宗土地視為一細胞(cell),其土地使用形態的轉變是依據週遭的狀況從一組開發決策篩選進行。開發決策類型則由問卷方式取得,作為模擬實驗中開發決策庫的來源。以「由下而上」的概念視都市為一複雜空間系統,藉由電腦模擬的實驗操作探討其複雜演化現象。經由模擬實驗顯示,系統中宗地聚集規模與頻率自我組織呈現出冪律(power law)的現 象。根據Wolfram將細胞自動體的演化分為四類,只有第四類的規則會產生自我組織的複 雜結構。本研究藉由問卷方式建立有限理性的演化規則,與CA原型同樣採由下而上的互動,並得到臨界點(criticality)的碎形(fractal)空間分布,因此可推論有限理性行為是形塑複雜空間結構的Wolfram第四類CA規則之一。又本研究所得結果與實際都市空間結 構中普遍存在的碎形現象極為相似,因此推論有限理性行為或許就是實際上空間互動個體行為模式的基礎。
There is a recent shift from the top down to the bottom top approach to explor ing into urban spatial models partly because of variety and complexity of urba n development. The top down approach assumes that there exists an equilibrium point in urban development, and econometric and human ecological models for ur ban development are constructed to search for that equilibrium point. The bott om up approach starts from individual agents'' preferences and behaviors to exp lore into the interaction between these agent and the external environment. Th epurpose is to understand possible links between individual agents'' behavior a nd the urban evolution as a whole. Because the number of individual agents can be large and the choices combination of these agents can thus be complex, view ing a city as a complex spatial system becomes a new approach to understanding urban development evolution. Land use change in urban space is affected not only by external factors, but a lso by the interaction among land uses nearby which forms one of the important factors determining the land use model. Land use models based on mathematical constructs usually assume that market information is perfect and that spatial decision makers can attain full information, ignoring the differences in indiv idual agents'' ability to acquire information and make decisions. Therefore, de velopment decision makers'' behavior is subjec to bounded rationality. Given th is assumption, the research applies two dimensional cellular automata to compu tersimulations to investigate into how land wus changes and observe what patte rnsof large scale land use would emerge from the interaction among individual agents. In the experimental design, the research views each parcel of land in an artificial city as a cell whose land use pattern transition is selected fro m aset of development decisions contingent on the land use pattern in its neig hborhood.Development decision rules are constructed through a questionnaire su rvey as the development database in the simulation experiments. The experiment al design is based on the notion that a city is a complex spatial system and t hrough the bottom up approach to spatial evolution, we can conduct experiments of computer simulation to explore into the complex evolution phenomena of the system. The experimental results show that the scales of clusters of cells with the sa ame land use and the associated frequencies tend to self-organize into a power law. According to Wolfram''s fourth classifications of cellular automata, the f ourth category of transition rules will yield self-organized, complex structur es. Through a questionnaire survey to construct evolution rules of bounded rat ionality and using the bottom top interaction approach as in the original cell ular automata, the system evolves toward fractal spatial distribution as an in dication of self-organized criticality. It can be inferred that behavior of bo unded rationality is one of the factors that leads to complex spatial structur es implied by Wolfram*s fourth category of rules in cellular automata. The exp erimental results are similar to those obtained from real urban spatial datain that fractal phenomena are common in empirical studies. It follows that land d evelopment of bounded rationality is perhaps the basis of individual agents'' b ehavior of more realistic spatial interaction models.
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