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研究生:沈馥帆
論文名稱:製備研發之貝氏可靠度評價方法研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Bayesian Reliability Assessment During Equipment Development
指導教授:柯煇耀柯煇耀引用關係田墨忠田墨忠引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國防管理學院
系所名稱:資源管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1998
畢業學年度:86
語文別:中文
論文頁數:78
中文關鍵詞:裝備可靠度貝氏定理先驗分佈費雪資訊整合性貝氏分析法可靠度成長
外文關鍵詞:Equipment reliabilityBayes' theoremPrior distributionFisher's informationIntegrated Bayesian approachReliability growth
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本研究的主要目的是希望利用貝氏定理的優點,建立一套適用於裝備研發階段之整合性貝氏分析法(Integrated Bayesian approach),據以針對各階段研發裝備之可靠度達成度進行合理的評估。由於研發階段各類測試所得數據資料更新頻率高,先驗分佈便須隨之持續修正,在此環境下,如何快速確立先驗分佈便成為影響本研究成果的關鍵因素。本研究首先經由分析、比較各種可運用於貝氏先驗分佈參數估計方法;其次,則即應用貝氏定理的優點,建立一套適用於裝備研發階段之整合性貝氏可靠度估計法。除了分析程序的建立與說明之外,本文以兩個實際研發案為例,說明整合性貝氏分析法在實務上的適用性。經由實際案例之應用分析顯示,本研究所建立之整合性貝氏分析法能快速、有效地整合各研發階段可運用的間接與直接資訊,提供一套系統化評估裝備可靠度的作法。此舉不僅涵蓋對以往設計精進作業之肯定,更可對此項分析之主觀決定因素影響持續改善,使評估結果更加可信。案例分析結果亦顯示,整合性貝氏分析法除可用以適當的描述研製裝備可靠度趨勢、評估研發精進作業之效益外,更能逐階段修訂貝氏可靠度評估值,適時反映現況,以協助計畫管理作出及時的管理作為。此外,整合性貝氏分析法更能提供現行作法所無法提供之分析資訊予管理者參考研判,對專案計畫管理更其有實質上的助益。最後,本研究雖針對武器系統研發可靠度評估作業進行研究,但整合性貝氏分析法亦可適用於一般民用商品的研發,在實務應用上,並無限制。
This thesis intends to propose an integrated Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment during equipment development. The purposes of this study are two-fold. First, applicable methods for estimating the prior distribution parameters are reviewed, and the Fisher's information concept is adapted for this study. By introducing a weighting factor and the prior estimate of equipment reliability, this study establishes a parameter estimating method with the cumulative test data. Secondly, with the merit of Bayes' theorem, a systematic integrated Bayesian approach is developed. Two numerical examples are given in this thesis to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Based on the results of examples, it is found that people are faced with the problem of losing some useful information when the traditional reliability growth model is used to assess the achievement of equipment reliability, and couldn't do the right thing at the first time. While the design effort is still judged by the proposed approach and, by considering the engineering judgement and prior information, the proposed approach could point out the perturbation of reliability due to the design changes in time. By the way, the most important contribution of this approach is to provide several important informations used for decision-making those are absent by the present method. It is believed that if the proposed approach could be suitably applied, the reliability achievement could be accurately estimated and this will be helpful for project management.
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