臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

以往學者從事預算問題的研究中，有使用時間序列的方法（如ARIMA）來探討國防預算與非國防預算間的抵換（trade-off 關係，或以系統動態學的方法來探討預算分配之優先順序問題，規劃出維持預算優先或投資預算優先兩種國防預算分配政策，也有以「期望水準競賽模型」來探討國家資源配置的問題，或者用統計、迴歸的方法來做預算預測或規劃的問題，這些方法都只是解決現實問題的一種工具，而用模糊數學的觀念來解決預算方面的問題是較為少見的。
在一般人的觀念裡，會認為財務、預算必是一種「完全精確」的數字，不能有錯誤，否則全盤皆錯，但在做財務、預算上也會有面臨一些決策的問題，而決策上的選擇方案，往往是模糊不清、界定不明確的，而模糊數學就是要將此種模糊不清的現象或方案清楚化、量化，以產生可供決策參考的數據或資料，供決策有所依循或參考。
本研究試圖運用模糊數學理論的方法，來設法解決具有隸屬關係之上、下兩層級間的預算規劃、分配問題，先以層級分析法（AHP）的觀念來建立因子間之權重集，再以模糊綜合評判的方法進行評判、分析，並予以量化來處理預算規劃、分配的問題，最後並以一個實際的預算規劃為例，來說明模糊量化處理預算規劃問題的過程。
綜合以上所提之研究過程，本研究得出之主要成果如下：
(1)提出一個程序化、簡單化之模糊量化分析法，處理預算規劃的問題。
(2)兼顧上下層級間意見友立場之表達，以進行預算規劃決策，避免決策時的偏頗。
(3)提供在預算、資源供需不均的情況下之有效解決之道，使預算、資源能得到公平的分配，並發揮其最大功效。

Some scholars used "time series method" (such as ARIMA) to quest the trade-off relation between defense and non-defense budget, or used "system dynamics" to research the priority on budget allocation, and they get two lands of defense budget allocation policies. Which one is the priority─maintain or investment budget. Someone used "competing aspiration levels model" to probe into the issue of the nation resource allocation. And some people used statistics or regression analysis to do some budget forecast or planning. All of them are some tools for solving the practical problem. It is rare for someone used the concept of fuzzy mathematics to solve the budget questions.
Most people think that finance and budget are "accurate" number, it can''t be wrong or it will get serious mistake. People will face the decision-making problems in finance and budget. The decision options are fuzzy and not clear most of the time. Fuzzy mathematics can make it clear and quantifying it, and get some useful information or data for decision making.
This study attempts to solve the two-stage budget planning problems. First it uses AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process) to get the factors'' weight and Fuzzy Synthetic Decision to evaluate and analysis them, and quantifies the budget planning problems. Finally it uses a practical example to explain the process of fuzzy quantifying on budget planning.
In brief, we can get some result from the study.
(1) The study puts forward a procedural and simple method to deal with the budget planning problems.
(2) Take account to both stage''s statement of opinion and standpoint, and avoid having partiality in decision-making.
(3) Provide a method to solve the problem about the resource or budget allocation. Let them get fair allocation and get the bet efficacy.