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研究生:周俊中
研究生(外文):Chou, Jiun Chung A.
論文名稱:台灣天然檜木林分結構矩陣模式穩定性之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on Matrix Growth Model Stability of Natural Cypress Stand Structure in Taiwan
指導教授:李國忠李國忠引用關係---
指導教授(外文):Kouchung J. Lee
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:森林學系研究所
學門:農業科學學門
學類:林業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1998
畢業學年度:86
語文別:中文
論文頁數:88
中文關鍵詞:台灣檜木林分結構矩陣生長模式生物歧異度天然林經營永續發展
外文關鍵詞:Cypressstand structureMatrix growth modelbiological diversitynatural forest managementsustained development
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[中文摘要]
有鑑於檜木在台灣是珍貴且重要之樹種,且未來永續林業的作業方式是趨向擇伐的
異齡林經營,因此擇伐的施業方法與天然林的經營便是當前的研究重點。為了反應實際
林分狀態與預測變化趨勢,本研究針對台灣地區天然檜木林型,以林務局民國67年之第
二次「台灣之森林資源及土地利用」及民國71年之「台灣森林資源之連續調查報告」兩
次調查之檜木生長資料,進行分析。研究中利用矩陣生長模式及 Shannon歧異度指數為
理論方法,推估各徑級檜木之生長變化機率,以探求林分結構在短期與長期動態平衡下
之演替及相對歧異度變化之趨勢,並利用重複取樣的方法測試模穩定性。
所得結果如下:
1.在回歸期10年及檜木林型每公頃之檜木更新幼木為6.12株的設定下,模式之預測值皆
落於實測值均數之 95%信賴區間內,且與實測值的配合度良好,顯示本模式短期之預
測能力在統計上的表現良好。但由於資料在中小徑木株數的變異大,使得其實測值的
信賴區間較大,這一部份的變異亦會隨著時間的推移而移向較大徑級。
2.台灣地區天然檜木林型於民國67∼71年間的林分結構為倒 J型,經長期自然演進後,
預測林分結構將呈現一右偏分配之鈴型構造,且檜木天然更新之自行持續能力減緩。
3.在生長條件不變及無人為干擾的條件下,檜木的結構將由民國60年代初始林分之每公
頃 79.07株、斷面積 23.22平方公尺與結構歧異度 1.63(95%),經由模式預測至 300
年後可達到每公頃 92.33株、斷面積為 33.27平方公尺與結構歧異度 1.67(98%),達
到動態平衡之後的株數為每公頃99.42株、斷面積為34.81平方公尺與結構歧異度1.71
(100%)。
[Abstract]
Cypress is a precious and important tree species of Taiwan. To achieve
sustainable forest management, its operation is moving toward uneven-age
management with selective cutting. Therefore, methods of selective cutting
and management of natural forests are two important issues of current
research efforts. In this study, data from the 1978 "Forest Resources and
Land Use in Taiwan" and the 1982 "Growth and mortality of Taiwan forest"
were used to examine current, and to predict future stand structures of
natural Cypress stands in Taiwan. Matrix growth models and Shannon diversity
indices were used to estimate the transition probability of each diameter
class, and to examine the succession and diversity dynamics of stand
structures under short-run condition and long-term equilibrium. Stability of
the models was then tested using repeated sampling. Results of this study
were as follow:
1. Under the assumption that Cypress stands would regenerate 6.12 seedlings
per ha every 10 years, the short-run prediction models were statistically
significant and fit the observed data very well with all predicted number
of trees falling within the 95% confidence intervals of observed data
mean. However, due to high variances, the observed number of trees for
small- and medium-diameter classes generally had wider confidence
intervals, and the variances would propagate over time as diameter
classes moves toward larger ones.
2. The stand structures of Cypress during 1978 and 1982 were reversed
J-shaped. Through natural succession, it was predicted that the
structures would become right-skewed bell-shaped, and natural Cypress
would become less capable of self-maintaining regeneration.
3. For Cypress in 1970s'', under constant growth condition without human
interference for 300 simulated years, the stand density would increase
from 79.07 to 92.33 trees per ha; the basal area would increase from
23.22 to 33.27 ㎡ per ha; the structure diversity index would increase
from 1.63 (95%) to 1.67 (98%). Under dynamic equilibrium, the stand
density would be 99.42 trees per ha; the basal area would be 34.81 ㎡
per ha; and the structure diversity index would be 1.71 (100%).
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