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研究生:呂俊杰
研究生(外文):Lu, Chun-chieh
論文名稱:人口老化對長期能源需求之影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Population Ageing on Long Term Energy Demand
指導教授:廖惠珠廖惠珠引用關係
指導教授(外文):Huei-chu Liao
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:產業經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:1998
畢業學年度:86
語文別:中文
論文頁數:101
中文關鍵詞:家計部門能源消費人口老化
外文關鍵詞:residential sectorenergy consumptionpopulation ageing
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
隨著經濟環境的改變,人們對於舒適生活的追求,致使家計部門能源消費
逐年遞增,因而能源消費結構產生重大變化。在許多已開發國家,住商部
門已成為最終能源消費之大宗部門。其中人口屬性的變遷是影響家計部門
能源消費趨勢的主因,在世界人口呈現老化之趨勢下,更突顯老人人口對
能源消費之影響的重要性。本研究乃利用美國能源部資訊總署於1993年所
做全國性之問卷調查資料,藉由計量方法之分析,以檢視人口老化對長期
能源需求之影響,並將影響家計部門能源消費之要因一併探討之。在迴歸
方程式上,除了考量總電力與天然氣消費方程式外,更進一步剖析電力與
天然氣細部終端消費行為。藉由資料之初步統計分析,結果顯示年輕家庭
因多屬高所得水準且其家庭成員較多,故乃耗用較多能源。但控制家庭成
員變數後,則顯示老人家戶消費較多電力與天然氣。其主要原因是老人家
庭成員少,使用上較無效率,以致耗用較多能源。另外,由家戶總能源消
費模型結果可發現,老人家庭多消費天然氣而少消費電力,而年輕家庭則
相反之。若進一步檢視各終端消費迴歸式,則顯示老人因禦寒能力較弱,
因而多消費暖氣之終端能源,且在能源的選擇上偏向天然氣,而在其它終
端能源消費上則顯示年輕家戶耗用較多能源。透過上述研究結果,除了所
得取之實證現象可提供各個能源需求管控策略之訂定外,也可提供我國未
來能源部門有關能源細部資料之搜集,以及相關研究進行之參考。
Residential and Commercial sector energy demand is increasing
rapidly and turned out to be the major energy consumption end
users in many developed countries. While the aged consume large
share of energy, it is important to study how the energy
consumption will move ahead in the future with the stylized fact
of population ageing in the world.The data from the 1993
Residential Energy Consumption Survey(RECS) are used in this
research, which is published by the Energy Information
Administration of U.S. Department of Energy. By applying the
econometric analysis, this paper investigates the impact of
population ageing on long term energy demand, and those factors
influencing the residential energy consumption. The electricity
and natural gas are selected as our research goal fuels due to
their popularity in the residential sector. Except the fuels
regression analysis, the end-uses fuel analysis is implemented
also in this paper.Basic data analysis shows that the young
households consume more energy than elderly households. However,
the per-capita energy intensity among the old is higher than
those of other age groups because the size of most elderly
households is much smaller. By implementing the econometric
analysis, this paper finds the elderly households use less
electricity but more natural gas, particularly, more natural gas
for space heating. Which indicates that more fuels for space
heating should be supplied for the aged. It is believed that the
demand side energy management will be improved by considering
those evidences found in this paper. By the way, the study here
can also upgrade related researches for our country.
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